Sensitivity Analysis Of The Factor Of Open Source Blowing Dust Resulting From Wind Erosion Of Bare Soil And Uncertainty Of The Emission Inventory

In recent years,the atmospheric particle has become a focus of public attention due to the adverse effects on human health,visibility,and global climate.The results of atmospheric particles source apportionment in Tianjin indicate that the main source of air pollutants in Tianjin is the open source blowing dust resulting from wind erosion of bare soil.The high-quality list of soil wind erosion sources provides relevant data for the relevant environmental protection departments to formulate air pollution control strategies and provide data support for regional environmental air pollution prevention.In this paper,we used the model soft,are(PMEI-WES),independently developed by our research group,to divide the dust emitting blocks in the suburbs of Tianjin into blocks.And the emission list of soil wind erosion open source in the suburb of Tianjin in 2016 was run out.Using the Brute Force Method,estimated the sensitivity factors affecting the emission fluxes.Using the Monte Carlo method,changing the uncertainty of all input parameters,and the 95%(and 90%)probability range and uncertainty of the total amount of emissions were obtained.The main conclusions of this paper were as follows:(1)In 2016.the total emission of PM10 from wind erosion sources in the suburbs of Tianjin was 22025.173 It The emission fluxes of Jinnan was 481.5937t;the emission fluxes of Jizhou was 1225.997t;the emission fluxes of Baodi was 1831.0834t;the emission fluxes of Wuqing was 1864.5307t;the emission fluxes of Ninghe was 5774.0586t;the emission fluxes of Hangu was 2592.273t;the emission fluxes of in Beichen was 782.8432t;the emission fluxes of Dongli was 1494.3977t:the emission fluxes of Xiqing was 759.3884t;the emission fluxes of Tanggu was 1387.3135t;the emission fluxes of Dagang was 1009.8716t;the emission fluxes of Jinghai was 2820.824t.The area with the largest amount of emission fluxes is Ninghe,and the smallest area was Jinnan.(2)In the inventory model,wind speed is the most important paraleter affecting emission fluxes,and the emission fluxes increases exponentially with the increase of wind speed.There was a positive correlation between soil calcium carbonate and emissions,and the emission fluxes increased stepwise with the increase of calcium carbonate.There was a negative correlation between soil organic matter and emissions,and the amount of emissions decreased with the increase of organic matter.Dew point temperature,highest temperature and lowest temperature had an impact on emission fluxes,but there was no obvious functional relationship.Mainly affecting the process of crop growth,indirectly influence the emission fluxes.Soil bulk density,field capacity,pH value,and cation exchange capacity had little effect on emissions.(3)Using Monte Carlo method to simulate the influence of input parameters to output parameters.The results showed that the average value of emissions was 24371.3261t.The minimum value was 14191.1762t and the maximum value was 47730.7827t.The 95%(and 90%)probability range of emission fluxes were 15237.7581t to 37434.8873t.uncertainty was-37.48%to 53.60%;90%probability range of emission fluxes were 16111.8606t to 36104.7554t.uncertainty was-33.89%to 48.14%.The uncertainty of total emissions is small,and the input parameters were reasonable and accurate.The uncertainty of each district is positively correlated with the error of wind speed.The uncertainty of Jizhou,Jinnan.Wuqing and Ninghe was relatively large;the uncertainty of Tanggu.Baodi.Hangu and Dongli was relatively moderate;the uncertainty of Xiqing.Jinghai,Dagang and Beichen was relatively small.The soil parameters have a longer time step than the meteorological parameters,and have a greater impact on the extreme value of the simulated in total emissions.