Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis And Verification Of Emission Inventory In Guangdong Province,2012

Emission Inventory of air pollutants have been widely recognized tools for research on prevention and control of air pollution,like air quality forecasting,health exposure assessment,pollutant emission trend analysis,and regional atmospheric pollution control measurements making.However,there is still a large uncertainty of emission inventory due to the lack of key data,poor data representation,lack of experience and knowledge and other reasons.Quantitative uncertainty analysis is an important method for emission inventory diagnosis.Combining with sensitivity analysis,uncertainty analysis is capable of identifying the key uncertainty source among numerous model inputs and provide an effective pathway to improve emission inventory.Improvement of emission inventory through uncertainty analysis is critical since it can provide robust data for researches based on emission inventory.However,the research in the current state still has a limitation in accurately and efficiently conducting quantitative uncertainty analysis for emission inventory.In this study,a methodological framework for quantitative uncertainty analysis of emission inventory was established which associated with emission inventory developing,source inventory quantitative uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis,result verification of source inventory model system assessing.Meanwhile,quantitative uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the inventory model input and overall emission inventory was carried out based on the emission inventory of anthropogenic sources for Guangdong Province in 2012,the results of the emission inventory were verified,and the effect from uncertainty of emission inventory was verified,as well.Below are the key conclusion drawn in the thesis.(1)A 2012-based emission inventory of anthropogenic sources for Guangdong Province was developed.The total emissions of SO2,NOX,CO,PM10,PM2.5,BC,OC,VOCs and NH3 for Guangdong Province were 777.0kt,1532.2kt,7305.4kt,998.9kt,367.9kt,53.5kt,78.8kt,1257.5kt and 584.1kt,respectively.Results showed that stationary combustion source was the largest contributor to SO2,NOX,CO and PM2.5,while fugitive dust was the largest contributors for PM10 emissions.The on-road source and biomass burning source are the primary BC and OC emission sources,and VOCs emission was dominated by on-road mobile source and solvent use,while agricultural and animal husbandry source are important sources of NH3 emissions.(2)A sector-based emission factor uncertainty database was developed.On the basis of this database,the quantitative uncertainty analysis of the inventory was carried out,and the uncertainty range of SO2,NOX,CO,PM10,PM2.5,BC,OC,VOCs and NH3 in the 95% confidence interval of Guangdong Province in 2012 were-11%~11%?-16%~48%?-18%~68%?-34%~76%?-7%~80%?-66%~154%?-63%~126%?-6%~97% and-10% to 67%,respectively.(3)The correlation coefficient method was used for sensitivity analysis of emission sources uncertainty models and model input.The results shows that stationary combustion source,on-road source,biomass burning source,fugitive dust,solvent use and animal husbandry source do has great impacts to uncertainty of overall emissions inventory.Based on the sensitivity analysis results of the input parameters of all emission sources,emission factor is the most important source to the uncertainty of emission inventory,followed by the activity data.(4)Finally,we choose the four methods to compare the results of the emission inventory in this paper and other research,and verify the rationality of the results and source structure from multiple perspectives.Meanwhile,there were obvious influence from emission inventory uncertainty to uncertainty of model simulation was verified through the constructed of air quality simulation platform.Taking 2012-based anthropogenic sources emission inventory in Guangdong Province as basic data,the thesis conducted a systematic study on uncertainty analysis of emission inventory and model input,which not only identified the key sources of inventory uncertainty,but also verified the rationality of inventory.Based on this,it could provide some methodological and data reference for the relevant research of emission inventory preparation and inventory quantitative uncertainty analysis could provide a methodology and data reference for studies on uncertainty quantification of emission inventory.