Research On Risk Measurement And Value Evaluation Of CCER Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project

The development of forestry carbon sequestration project is not only an important strategic choice for coping with climate change,but also an effective way to improve the management level and the productivity of forest land,and it is an important carrier to realize the dual goals of forestry ecology and economy in China.With the gradual establishment and development of the domestic carbon market,CCER(China Certified Emission Reduction)project including forestry carbon sequestration project has shown a rapid development trend.However,the development of forestry carbon sequestration project still face many risks,which will have an important impact on forestry carbon sequestration development and project investment decisions.How to measure the development risk of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project and objectively evaluate the investment value of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project under uncertainty conditions are a common concern of academics and all sectors of society,which have important academic value and practical significance.Based on a brief analysis of the development status and characteristics of China's CCER forest carbon sequestration project,using survey data and expert knowledge,this paper comprehensively used triangular fuzzy number and structural equation(SEM)method to make adaptive improvement on the existing project risk evaluation model,and constructed a risk measurement model suitable for CCER forestry carbon sequestration project,which is used for risk measurement of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project;then this paper constructed a value assessment model for CCER forestry carbon sequestration project which incorporates risks to improve the scientific and accuracy of the CCER forestry carbon sequestration project value assessment;using the above-mentioned risk measurement model and value evaluation model,this paper conducted an empirical test with CCER forestry carbon sequestration project A as an example.The results showed that:(1)China's CCER forestry carbon sequestration project has shown rapid development in recent years,but the filing rate and the emission reduction issuance rate of forestry carbon sequestration project are low.There are four different types of forestry carbon sequestration project,including carbon sequestration afforestation project,forest management carbon sequestration project,bamboo afforestation carbon sequestration project and bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project.Among them,carbon sequestration afforestation project is currently the main body of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project in China.At the same time,different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects have great differences in their capacity to increase sequestration.(2)There are great risks in the development of forestry carbon sequestration project.Taking CCER Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project A as an example,risks mainly come from operational risk and market risk,followed by policy risk and natural risk.The risk of high project design cost and the risk that operators do not operate according to technical regulations in operational risk,the risks of labor price rise and forest land rent rise in market risk are relatively high.The overall risk impact of Project A is 0.4819.(3)Based on different evaluation methods and whether risk factors are taken into account,the value results of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project are significantly different.Taking CCER Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project A as an example,based on the traditional net present value method(without considering risks),the net present value of Project A is 79.2609 million yuan;based on the risk equivalent method,in consideration of project risk loss,the expected net present value of Project A is 41.0651 million yuan;based on the real option method,considering the option premium brought by the uncertainty of carbon price to the project,the investment value of Project A is 129.7971 million yuan.Based on the above analysis,the following discussions were proposed:(1)Although forestry carbon sequestration accounts for a small share of the carbon market at present,it has multiple benefits for ecological,economic and social,so the future development of forestry carbon sequestration is good.At the same time,due to the limited qualified forest resources for afforestation and reforestation projects in China and the huge carbon sequestration potential from forest management projects,we should focus on the development of forest-raising forestry carbon sequestration project in line with the REDD+ mechanism.(2)The development subject of forestry carbon sequestration project should focus on strengthening the control and prevention of operational risks.At the same time,the government should clearly formulate policies and rules related to the transaction of forestry carbon sequestration project in the market as soon as possible,establish and perfect the investment and financing mechanism of forestry carbon sequestration market,so as to reduce the policy risks in the development of forestry carbon sequestration projects.(3)Risk loss and risk option premium should be considered in the evaluation of project value to make a more scientific evaluation of project investment value;the project development subjects need to reasonably predict the potential impact of carbon price fluctuations on project revenue,and strengthen project risk management and option premium accounting.