Research On Risk Assessment Of Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project Based On Bayesian Network

Developing forestry carbon sequestration projects is an important way to deal with climate change and it has obvious cost advantages.The Chinese government has taken forestry sequestration increase as an important strategic choice to deal with climate change,and CCER projects,including forestry carbon sequestration projects,have been incorporated into the carbon trading market as a carbon offsetting mechanism.With the gradual establishment and improvement of China's carbon market,the development of forestry carbon sequestration projects has received extensive attention and has a good development prospect,but it also faces many uncertainties and risks.How to effectively identify the risks of forestry carbon sequestration projects and conduct overall measurement and comprehensive analysis of risks will not only have a direct impact on the investment decisions of enterprises,but also have a profound impact on the long-term development of forestry carbon sequestration industry.However,the risk research of related forestry carbon sequestration projects is still very weak.Based on the systematic analysis of the risk sources and influencing mechanisms of forestry carbon sequestration projects,this paper constructs a risk evaluation model of forestry carbon sequestration projects based on Bayesian network,and takes CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects as an example to measure the overall risk level and judge the main risk factors;on this basis,through the adaptive adjustment of the model,the risk differences of different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects are compared;and finally the countermeasures and suggestions for risk management of forestry carbon sequestration projects are proposedThe main conclusions are as follows:(1)The risk assessment results of forestry carbon sequestration projects based on Bayesian network show that the overall risk value of China's CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects is 1.932(the risk value interval is 1-3),and the risk level is medium.Among them,policy risk and market risk are relatively high,with risk values of 2.150 and 2.044,followed by technical risk,with a risk value of 1.925;natural risk are the lowest,with a risk value of 1.546.(2)The main risk factors of policy risk for CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects are changes in forestry carbon sequestration trading rules(access system)and changes in national emission reduction policies(quota allocation);the main risk factors of market risk are rising labor prices and rising land rents;the main risk factors of technical risk are that the project has not been issued and the project has not been filed;the main risk factors of natural risks are plant diseases and insect pests and forest fires.(3)Different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects have certain differences in characteristics.Judging from China's forest land resource conditions,there is greater potential to increase forest carbon sequestration through management in the future.The risk assessment results of different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects show that the risks of afforestation projects are generally greater than those of management projects,and the risks of forest projects is generally greater than that of bamboo projects.For different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects,the risks from high to low are: carbon sequestration afforestation project,bamboo afforestation project,forest management project and bamboo forest management project,with the risk levels of 2.221,2.121,1.954 and 1.705 respectively.According to the above conclusions,this study puts forward several countermeasures for forestry carbon sequestration risk management and project development: the first is to speed up the construction of a unified national carbon market system,clarify the inclusion of forestry carbon sinks in trading access rules to reduce systemic policy risks;the second is to simplify the technical standards and procedures for the identification of forestry carbon sequestration projects to reduce transaction costs;the third is to establish a multi-level forestry carbon sequestration trading market system and realize complementary market advantages at different levels;the fourth is to focus on the development of forest management carbon sequestration projects based on the advantages of China's artificial forest resources;the fifth is to actively connect with the development of international carbon markets and strive for pricing initiative in the carbon market;the sixth is to strengthen publicity and guidance to increase public awareness and demand for forestry carbon sequestration.