Evaluation And Study Of Comprehensive Bearing Capacit In Jining City

City is a concentrated area of population distribution,resource consumption,ecological environmental pollution,resource consumption and transportation,which is an important carrier of the regional socio-economic development.Due to the rapid expansion of cities,the problems of resource shortage,traffic congestion and environmental damage are becoming more and more serious,and the restriction of urban carrying capacity on city development has attracted more and more attention.As an important industrial and commercial city along the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal,lining city has become increasingly prosperous with its economic development,but the resulting urban problems are endless.Therefore,it is urgent and important to study and improve the urban comprehensive carrying capacity,and to promote the establishment of a system of coordinated development of resources,social economy and environment in Jining city.Based on the research on urban bearing capacity at home and abroad,this paper combines the actual development situation of Jining city,and selects the factors that play an important role in urban development.Constructed the evaluation index system of urban comprehensive bearing capacity,which is including six elements(land bearing capacity,water resources capacity,traffic capacity,environmental capacity,economic capacity,social capacity)and 32 indicators.The index weight was determined by entropy method,the bearing capacity of each subsystem was calculated by using the pressure index,and the comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the comprehensive bearing capacity of Jining city.From the time series,the paper analyzes the comprehensive bearing capacity,the change of the bearing capacity and the pressure index of each factor from 2006 to 2015 in Jining city,in order to find out the problems that restricts the city sustainable development and the short board factors,so as to propose the suggestion of reference value and scientific,and promote the sustainable development of Jining city.After analysis and research,the main conclusions are the following:(1)From 2006 to 2015,the comprehensive bearing capacity of Jining city increased year by year,social bearing capacity,economic bearing capacity,environmental bearing capacity and land bearing capacity are on the rise.Among them,the social bearing capacity rise is obvious,the land bearing capacity rise slowly,the traffic carrying capacity shows the trend of first growth and decline,the capacity of water resources has been declining.By 2015,the order was social bearing capacity,economic bearing capacity/transportation capacity,environmental bearing capacity,water resources baearing capacity and land bearing capacity.It 1s indicated that water resources bearing capacity and land bearing capacity are two of the factors that restrict and influence the improvement of urban comprehensive bearing capacity in present and future.(2)Based on the contribution rate of each factor to the urban comprehensive bearing capacity,from 2006 to 2013,the contribution rate of water resource carrying capacity is the highest,which is the most important factor affecting the comprehensive bearing capacity,but it has been a decline in recent years.The contribution rate of economic carrying capacity and social bearing capacity are gradually rising and surpass water resources bearing capacity,becoming the two main factors that affect the comprehensive bearing capacity of Jining city in this stage.(3)From 2006 to 2015,the water resource pressure index and land pressure index in the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of Jining city decreased continuously,and the decrease range was large,they were in a stage of overload.(4)The contribution rate of environmental bearing capacity and the change of environmental pressure index are not significant,and in a relatively balanced state.However,the environmental quality of Jining city is not very optimistic,ranking back in Shandong province.The enviromental carrying capacity needs to be improved and the task of environmental govermance 1s still very difficult.