A Comparative Study Of The Impact Mechanism,Volatility Trend And Market Risk Of The China-European Carbon Price

Since the economic globalization,the global carbon emission continues to increase,causing a series of environmental pollution and resource shortage.As an effective means to cope with climate change,carbon trading market and its financial properties have become one of the hot topics in the field of energy-environment-economy.In order to cope with climate change,25 countries or regions have adopted the way of establishing carbon emission trading market to reduce emissions.Among them,the development of the EU carbon market is relatively complete.As the earliest and largest carbon trading market,the EU carbon market has accumulated rich experience in the establishment of mechanism and the development of carbon financial system,so it is often regarded as an example of the standardization and stabilization of carbon trading market by all countries.As an economic country and a major carbon emitter,the stable and standardized operation of China's carbon market will have an important impact on the economy and environment of China and the world at large.Based on the actual situation of China and EU carbon trading market,this paper focuses on a comparative study on China and EU carbon trading markets from three aspects,including analysis of influencing factors and mechanism of carbon price,,analysis of carbon price fluctuation trend and measurement of carbon trading market risk.In this paper,EU carbon trading market as a reference model,focusing on the empirical study of China's carbon trading market.Through the direct comparison between the two carbon markets,on the one hand,it ensures the scientific nature and applicability of the models and methods,on the other hand,it can also bring enlightenment to the future development of China's carbon trading market.The main research work and innovation points of this paper include the following aspects:(1)In the study of the influence mechanism of carbon price,the smooth conversion autoregressive(STR)model is adopted to effectively capture the nonlinear dynamic conversion relationship between carbon price and its influence factors,and obtain intuitive data results.Though comparing the conclusion data,the EU carbon price is significantly affected by various factors.The most significant factor affecting China's carbon price is the exchange rate,and the link between China's carbon market price and other factors is weak.It can be seen that China's carbon trading market is still isolated and immature.It needs to combine its own characteristics,draw on the EU to form a complete and unified carbon trading system and internationally recognized normative standards,and strengthen the relationship between the carbon market and the external financial,social and economic environment.At the same time,it will accelerate the promotion of the electronic platform for carbon trading,and realize the “curve overtaking” in the process of optimization and restructuring of the carbon trading market.(2)In the study of the characteristics of carbon price fluctuation,the support vector machine(CV-SVM)model based on fuzzy information granulation and cross-validation algorithm is used to predict the fluctuation range and change trend of carbon price.The error analysis proves that this model has a good data fitting effect,and the accuracy of prediction results is greatly improved.It is worth noting that there is a certain gap in the accuracy of carbon price prediction in the china and EU carbon trading market.The main reason is that there are fewer outliers in the fluctuation of carbon price in the EU carbon market,while the random fluctuation is more frequent in the China's carbon market,which leads to insufficient depth of model training and increases the difficulty in extracting characteristics of the fluctuation of carbon price in the China's carbon market.Therefore,promoting the integration and integration of China's carbon trading market and the international carbon trading market is an important means to promote the healthy development of China's carbon trading price.(3)In study of carbon trading market risk,GARCH-VaR model is used to explore the volatility characteristics and volatility aggregation effect of carbon price yield,so as to quantify the risk level of carbon price yield in the carbon trading market.Through comparative analysis,it is found that the volatility of carbon price yield risk in Hubei and Beijing carbon trading markets is more severe than that in the EU,with more obvious difference between peaks and valleys and the possibility of facing extreme risks.In order to avoid the risk of carbon price yield,the carbon allowance scheme should be optimized according to the characteristics of the industry.At the same time,disclose the information of the carbon price trading market and reduce uncertainty and transaction risk caused by information asymmetry.