The Simulation Study Of Energy Conservation And Emission Reduction Path Selection In China Based On A Bilevel Multi-objective Optimization Model

In June 2015,China submitted the document“Enhanced Actions on Climate Change:China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions”,which set the target of China's self-determined emission reduction by 2030,including achieving the peak of carbon emissions around 2030 and striving for an early peak.In order to explore what kind of development path can be chosen to slow down carbon emissions and make it easier to reach the peak of carbon emissions,this paper aims at the two-layer multi-objective characteristics of China's energy-environment-economy?3E?system structure to constructs a bi-level multi-objective optimization model,and six scenarios are simulated in preference to energy saving,emission reduction,and economic development.Energy saving and emission reduction effects and the possibility of CO₂ emission peak target under different paths are discussed.The effects of energy saving and emission reduction?ESER?are not ideal in the energy saving scenario and the carbon emission reduction scenario,while they are relatively satisfactory in the economic development scenario.The“Win-win”situation between upper-level and lower-level is realizable in the economic development scenario,i.e.,high-quality economic development may germinate good effects on ESER.With rapid economic growth,the CO₂ intensity reduction target in China is easily obtainable,but the CO₂ emission peak target is hard to achieve by 2030.Shifting the increment of energy consumption and CO₂ emission to relatively developed regions is a prospective option for China to peak CO₂ emissions.And under the two-layer structure of“central-industry”,scenario 6 can successfully achieve the peak of carbon emission and achieve ideal economic development under certain conditions.The key for China's industrial sectors to achieve peak carbon emissions is to implement emission reduction measures on key industrial sectors?metal smelting and calendaring industry,petroleum processing industry,coking and nuclear fuel processing industry,chemical industry,etc.?.In addition,we need to properly guide the upgrading of industrial structure and give priority to the development of tertiary industry sector economy.In addition,the China's current decomposition scheme of the ESER index mismatches the economic development goals.Therefore,a rational decomposition of ESER targets requires the comprehensive analysis of energy consumption,carbon emission,and economic development.