Study On The Peak Path Of Carbon Emission In Northeast China In 2030

At the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference,the Chinese government proposed a series of new phase goals such as “maximizing carbon emission before and after2030 and accelerating the realization”.This goal is also proposed at the same time.The sign of China's greenhouse gas control work from the previous "strength emission reduction" gradually toward the "total emission reduction" a new period.The northeastern region belongs to China's old industrial base and has long been dominated by industry.Although the proportion of the tertiary industry has increased in recent years,the proportion of the secondary industry is still relatively high,while the industry is a high-energy-consuming industry,resulting in energy consumption.The carbon dioxide emissions are very high.In 2016,the carbon emissions in the northeast region accounted for about 11% of the country's total carbon emissions,while GDP accounted for only 7.05%.At the same time,the energy consumption structure in Northeast China is difficult to change within a short period of time,and the cost of carbon emission reduction is high.Therefore,research and analysis of the carbon emission peaks in the Northeast China is very important for achieving the national carbon emission target of 2030.On the basis of regional economic development theory,sustainable development theory,and energy substitution theory,this paper first analyzes the similarities and differences in economic and social development and carbon emissions in Northeast China from the perspective of population and economic structure;and uses the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.The related methods in the calculation of carbon emissions;the use of LMDI decomposition method to analyze the impact factors of carbon emissions in Northeast China;Finally,combinedwith the economic level and corresponding development policies in Northeast China,the goal is to “China's carbon emissions peak in 2030”.Using the scenario analysis method,the extended STIRPAT model is specifically applied to the peak-to-peak path analysis,and measures to control the carbon emissions in the Northeast are proposed.The research shows that: 1)Carbon emissions in the Northeast China continued to rise during 2001-2016,and emission reduction efforts still need to be strengthened.2)As a multivariable nonlinear STIRPAT model,carbon emissions are affected by population size,economy,energy structure,and technological progress.And other factors.3)According to the current status of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Northeast China,three scenario models are designed using scenario analysis.The study found that the strong energy saving scenario is the best scenario for achieving peak carbon emissions in the Northeast China in 2030,with a peak value of 298.2×10t.4)To analyze the single-factor analysis and controllability of carbon emission peaks in Northeast China,find the optimal path to achieve carbon emission peaks in Northeast China in 2030 and provide reasonable suggestions.