Study On The Risk Analysis And Evaluation For Urban Rail Transit Operation

Safety is the eternal theme of urban rail transit.It is the basic work and the most important thing.In the urban rail transit industry,the realization of security risk management,on the basis of existing safety management,strengthening of safety awareness,improvement of safety concepts,and optimization of work ideas are all conducive to reducing operational risks and improving safety and security levels.Urban rail transit risk assessment,as the intermediate link of risk identification and risk control measures in the entire security risk management,is both an inevitable result of risk identification and a direction for the formulation of risk control measures.However,the existing research results have not yet established a comprehensive risk evaluation index system for urban rail transit operation.The evaluation content is relatively fragmented,the target of service is not clear,and the evaluation results are one-sided,so it is difficult to form a substantive effect.In view of this,this paper combines the current situation of urban rail transit safety management,starting with the objectives of risk assessment,establishing a risk assessment index system for different levels of management,and establishing an evaluation model based on extension theory,thereby providing new ideas and methods for urban rail transit risk assessment.First of all,domestic and international urban rail transit operation risk and accident data is obtained through investigation,literature review and reports research.This paper discusses the current research status of accident cause theory,combines the characteristics of urban rail transit operations,performs single-factor and multi-factor combination analysis according to the risk category,level,and status,summarizes the risk generation rules,and then identifies the unsafe factors that cause accidents.The mechanism of the risk factors that affect the operational safety of urban rail transit is elaborated in detail in terms of personnel,equipment,environment and management.Based on this,a coupling analysis is conducted from the perspective of system dynamics to clarify the coupling relationship among four factors above.Then,it elaborates the construction goals and principles of the urban rail transit risk assessment index system.Starting from the evaluation and guidance,based on the needs of the station,line and line network,factor analysis method is used to select various levels of evaluation indicators.After that,this paper builds a multi-level urban rail transit safety evaluation index system,and specifies the definition and measurement methods of all risk assessment indicators.Some necessary additional explanations is made too.Finally,based on the extension theory,combined with subjective weighting method and objective weighting method,an operational safety risk assessment model for urban rail transit is established.This model can evaluate the safety of the entire evaluation object and individual indicators and determine the safety of the safety assessment,which provides a reference for the development of corresponding effective risk prevention and control.Taking the urban rail transit operations of Nanjing as an example,it carries out risk assessments at three levels: station,line,and line network,and proposes targeted control measures for weak links of evaluation,which demonstrates the accuracy,effectiveness and operability of the model.