Research On Financial Crisis Warning Of Listed Companies In Chemical Industry Introduced With Ownership Structure Variable

As the pillar and leading industry of the national economy,the chemical industry has made significant contributions to the development of the national economy.However,due to the impact of the macro economy,rising raw material prices and sluggish market demand have caused many listed companies in the chemical industry to lose money year after year,resulting in a very likely financial crisis for the company.How to strengthen the management of the financial crisis of listed companies in the chemical industry has become a topic of concern to all parties.The financial crisis warning can predict the crisis beforehand.Through analyzing the internal and external environment of the company,the financial status of the company can be tracked,monitored and forecasted,thereby maximally protecting the interests of the company.Therefore,this thesis is necessary to carry out financial crisis warning research for listed companies in the chemical industry.The thesis thoroughly studies the related theories of corporate financial crisis early warning.At the same time,it analyzes in detail the current status of financial crisis of listed companies in the chemical industry and identifies the internal and external environmental factors that cause financial crisis in listed companies in the chemical industry.It puts forward the selection of financial crisis warning index system and the construction process of the model.The thesis selects 117 listed companies in the chemical industry of A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2014 to 2016 as modeling samples,and selects 23 financial variables and 7 indicators of equity structure variables.The binary Logistic regression model was used to construct a three-year Logistic financial crisis warning model with financial variables for listed companies in the chemical industry and a Logistic financial crisis warning model with equity structure introduced.Through the modeling sample and test sample verification,the equity structure variable has a significant effect on the early warning effect of the financial crisis of listed companies in the chemical industry.The results of the study show that the proportion of state-owned shares is positively correlated with the probability of financial crisis in listed companies in the chemical industry,the degree of ownership concentration is positively correlated with the probability of financial crisis in listed companies in the chemical industry.The equity structure variable has a significant effect on the early warning effect of the financial crisis of listed companies in the chemical industry.Finally,according to the empirical research results,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.The innovations of this thesis include: First,based on the traditional financial variables,this thesis introduces the equity structure variables and establishes a Logistic financial crisis early warning model for listed companies in the chemical industry introducing ownership structure variables.Second,the thesis takes into account the gaps between specific industries and analyzes the impact of equity structure variable on the early warning ability of financial crisis of listed companies in the chemical industry.The purpose is to build a financial crisis warning model with a better prediction accuracy for listed companies in the chemical industry and to monitor the company’s financial crisis signs,so that the company can take preventive measures in a timely manner to improve business conditions and financial status,and reduce the risk of financial crisis for listed companies in the chemical industry.