Research On Risk Assessment And Management Countermeasures Of Hazardous Chemicals Transportation On Freeway

There are various risk origins of hazardous chemicals transportation,which are complex to identify.The accidents of hazardous chemicals transportation always cause serious consequences and have a huge impact on the society.Most of the related research of risk assessment of hazardous chemicals is based on accident statistics,and take the annual accident rate as the overall influence of traffic flow parameters.There are few assessment method with real-time traffic flow parameters establishing the indicators,which leads to the lack of quantitative judgment on the risk under the specific traffic flow parameters.In order to improve the objectivity and real-time performance of management policy,the author puts forward a quantitative assessment method of the risk of hazardous chemicals transportation based on the real-time traffic flow parameters establishing the indicators,which will provide a theoretical basis for the dynamic management of hazardous chemicals transportation.Firstly,this paper established a cellular automata model of freeway traffic flow,and the rate of rear-end accident of dangerous goods vehicle was obtained.The author analyzed the characteristics of freeway and cellular automata.Combining with the real traffic flow data of freeway,the cellular automata model of freeway traffic flow was established based on the simulation platform of Matlab.The MAPE value between the emulational traffic flow data and the real traffic flow data was analyzed in order to verify the reliability of the evolution rules of the traffic flow model.On this basis,the relationship between the rear-end accident rate of the hazardous chemicals vehicles and the real-time traffic flow parameters has been obtained when the regression analysis of the rear-end times and real-time traffic flow parameters of the hazardous chemicals vehicles obtained by the simulation carried out.Secondly,this paper established a risk identification model and an impact range model combining real-time traffic flow parameters.The author established a risk identification model based on real-time traffic flow parameters according to the results of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)and the statistics of national highway accident patterns in 2017 on the basis of the rear-end accident rate of hazardous chemicals vehicles.The rate of hazardous chemicals leakage accident was obtained based on above research,which was used as the risk probability.At the same time,the author also built the influence range model of hazardous chemicals leakage based on real-time traffic flow parameters,and obtain the number of people affected by risk,which was taken as the risk cost.Finally,this paper used the ALARP principle to classify risks,and provided the countermeasures and suggestions for transportation management of hazardous chemicals.This paper adopted an ALARP principle-based standard of social risk grade assessment proposed by the China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,to divide the results of the risk assessment into three levels according to the risk probability and risk cost,and explained the meaning of each level.Then the assessment analysis of real case was carried out,based on which the author put forward the countermeasures and the suggestions for the management of hazardous chemicals transportation under the case conditions.This paper represents a quantitative risk assessment method for hazardous chemicals transportation based on real-time traffic flow parameters establishing the assessment indicators.The risk probability and influence range of hazardous chemicals transportation leakage accident were determined by correcting the actual traffic flow parameters with coefficient.Therefore,there is quantitative guiding significance in the result of the risk for the traffic flow condition of the hazardous chemicals transportation.This paper provided a method to quantitatively assess the risk of hazardous chemicals transportation with real-time traffic flow parameters,and provided real-time quantitative countermeasures and suggestions for the management of hazardous chemicals transportation in specific conditions.