Based On Weighting Method And Grey Markov Model Comprehensive Evaluation Of Operation State Of Petrochemical Equipment

In the process of petrochemical production,compressor is an indispensable pressurizing component,the operation of equipment with long period and high load has a direct impact on the operation of the whole petrochemical unit.Therefore,it is of great significance to fault diagnosis and condition evaluation of equipment.According to the data of long-term oil monitoring and the actual situation of operation of the equipment,a comprehensive evaluation index system of the equipment’s operation state is established based on the comprehensive weighting method.In order to improve the accuracy of the comprehensive evaluation and make it closer to the actual operation state of the equipment,different comprehensive evaluation methods and the determination of system weight are studied,and the evaluation of the equipment’s operation state is optimized.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Four comprehensive weighting methods are studied,and the application of three different principles of comprehensive weighting methods in the comprehensive evaluation of equipment operation status is compared.The three comprehensive weighting methods: multiplication integration method,comprehensive weighting method based on entropy modified G1 method and comprehensive weighting method based on unit constraints.The analysis results show that because of the differences of the principles of these comprehensive weighting methods,the results of the comprehensive weighting and the comprehensive evaluation values are also different,so in the calculation of the weights,the corresponding method of determining the comprehensive weights can be selected according to the actual situation and needs.In view of the shortcomings of subjective and objective weighting methods commonly used in determining the weights of comprehensive evaluation indicators of equipment operation status,a comprehensive weighting method combining subjective and objective factors is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of equipment operation status.(2)According to the actual data of long-term oil monitoring in key laboratories,the representative physical and chemical properties of lubricating oil(viscosity,moisture and acid value)and friction and wear data(direct reading of large and small abrasive particles)were selected as data indicators,and then the comprehensive evaluation index system of equipment operation was established.(3)Establish a comprehensive evaluation model of equipment operation status based on weighting method.Firstly,the index is processed by consistency and standardization,and then the weight of each index is calculated by different weighting methods.Based on the idea of weighted averaging operator,thecomprehensive evaluation value of equipment operation state is determined quantitatively.The evaluation model is validated according to the actual working conditions.The results show that the above comprehensive evaluation model is feasible for equipment fault diagnosis,which provides a new method for judging the operation status of equipment and provides technical support for condition-based maintenance.(4)Based on the above evaluation results,the comprehensive evaluation value of equipment operation status(health value)is used as the prediction parameter,and GM(1,1)model and grey Markov prediction model are used for prediction.By comparing the predicted value with the actual comprehensive evaluation value,the prediction accuracy of the two prediction models in this paper is calculated,and the correctness and accuracy of the prediction are compared.