A Study On The Spatial-temporal Pattern And Influence Factors Of Prefecture-level Cities Resident's Per Capita Carbon Emissions In China

With the gradually development of the social economy and the living standards,the pursuit and consumption of residents are continuously increasing,and the carbon emission growth trend will continuously rise in the future.Based on the statistical data of energy consumption and consumption expenditure of residents over the years,this study calculates the carbon emissions of residents in China's provinces from 1997 to2016,and combines them with DMSP-OLS nighttime lighting data,in order to obtain the per capita living carbon emissions of 286 prefecture-level cities in 1997-2012.And this study describes the changes trend of the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions.Then,the variation coefficient and the gravity model are used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of per capita total carbon emissions,per capita direct carbon emissions and per capita indirect carbon emissions.Finally,this study analyzes the influential factors of per capita living carbon emissions used geographic weighted regression models from prefecture-level cities and city group.The results show that:(1)During the period 1997-2016,the total carbon emissions of residents increased from 7.12×10~8t to 37.95×10~8t which is 4.3 times than capita resident carbon emissions in 1997,and direct carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions increased 2.7 and 7.1 times than 1997.Per capita resident carbon emissions increased from 0.58t to 2.75t which is 4.7 times than per capita resident carbon emissions in1997,and Per capita direct carbon emissions and per capita indirect carbon emissions increased 2.7 and 7.1 times than 1997.(2)During the period 1997-2012,the per capita living carbon emission of the prefecture-level city was obviously increased,and the spatial difference exhibit low-high-low variation characteristics,the intensity of the change was in the order of western>eastern>central distribution,and the center of gravity shifted from northwest to southeast direction as a whole.The growth rate and increment of per capita direct carbon emissions are low,the spatial distribution and variation pattern are highly concentrated,the center of gravity is partial to northwest,and the movement trajectory of gravity center is divided into three stages.The per capita indirect carbon emissions increase from 0.2517t to 1.59t,and the per capita indirect carbon emissions are growing faster than per capita living carbon emissions and per capita direct carbon emissions.The characteristics of coefficient variation shows that the coefficient of variation is larger in the less developed areas,but in the cities with earlier development and more stable speed,the coefficient of variation is distributed more stably.(3)Through the regression analysis of per capita living carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities,it is found that the per capita GDP,per capita savings and carbon emission intensity have a fully positive effect on per capita living carbon emissions,but the degree of promotion to different regions is different.Industrial structure and per capita consumption have a two-way impact on per capita carbon emissions.(4)Through regression analysis of per capita living carbon emissions is city group,it is found that when the economic development is in the primary stage of development.The per capita GDP,industrial structure and emission intensity promote the growth of per capita living carbon emissions,but the contribution to the per capita living carbon emissions in different regions is different.The increase of per capita savings is beneficial to the growth of per capita living carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration and Harbin-Changchun megalopolis urban groups,but it is not conducive to the increase of per capita living carbon emissions in other city groups;The effect of per capita consumption amount on per capita living carbon emissions in city group is opposite to that of per capita savings.When the economic development is in the middle and late stages of industrialization,the amount of savings per capita increases the driving force of carbon emissions per capita in urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.However,the per capita GDP,per capita consumption and intensity of carbon emissions have the opposite effect on the per capita living carbon emissions.