Research On Navigation Risk Of Ships In Zhejiang Coast

As the construction of a powerful transportation country is put on the agenda and accelerated,the coastal waters of Zhejiang,as an important part of the large coastal transportation channels,due to the unique geographical location and complex navigational environment,the safety of ship navigation has been paid more and more attention by the society.Zhejiang coast has a wide latitude span,a large number of islands and merchant ships and Fishing ports and fishing areas are densely distributed with the strong development of offshore wind power;the port,shipping,and aquaculture fishing industries in Zhejiang coast are very developed,and it’s typical sharing sea area of merchant ships,fishing boats,military vessels.In this sea area,the ship routes present to be intersectant and complicated,which increased the hidden danger of ship navigation.Based on this background,the evaluation of ship navigation risk in Zhejiang coast can identify the risks and focus and can provide an important decision reference for ship navigation safety.In this paper,the traffic flow data and accident data in Zhejiang coast are analyzed firstly,and the important contents of ship navigation risk are identified from the aspects of navigation environment and accident time and space characteristics,and the following conclusions are obtained:(1)the function of Zhejiang coast is related to the shipping industry,fishery and military development,which brings about the complex navigable environment for ships.(2)the merchant shipping traffic is great,and the navigation risk on the near shore route is greater than far off shore route;(3)The proportion of collision accidents is high,and the occurrence of accidents is related to time,water area,ship type and so on.Considering other risk analysis method,we select Bayesian network as the evaluation method of ship navigation risk and construct a risk evaluation model.Based on the characteristics of accidents and traffic flow,12 nodes of Bayesian network are screened and analyzed: navigation risk,accident consequence,accident frequency,time,time of one day,fishing period,accident loss,personnel death,ship tonnage,ship type,accident type,area.At last,using software GeNIe,we construct ship navigation risk Bayes network topology of Zhejiang coast.The navigation risk of Zhejiang coast can be calculated by Bayesian Network.Sensitivity of each node in the network is calculated by reasoning function of Bayesian network to find out the most factors that affect the navigation risk and the navigation risk level in different areas of Zhejiang coast.According to the level of navigation risk and the sensitivity of nodes,safety management recommendations are propose for maritime administration.The main conclusion of this part are as follow:(1)the overall level of ship navigation risk in Zhejiang coast is low.(2)the ship navigation risk level in the east of Zhoushan is the highest and the navigation risk in the east of Qushan Island is the lowest in Zhejiang coast.(3)The main influencing factors on the navigational risk are the accident consequence node and the accident frequency node,followed by the area node and the accident type node.This paper analyzes characteristics traffic flow and accident of Zhejiang coast.Considering the demand of risk analysis in special area,we choose the Bayes network method to construct a model to analyze the risk evaluation in Zhejiang coast,identified priorities that need to be strengthened,which is of great practical and guiding significance to improve the safety management level of ship navigation in the Zhejiang coast.