Analysis On Key Factors Of Low Carbon Benefit Of Thermal Power Generation Enterprises In Guizhou Province And Countermeasures

With the rapid development of economy,the global energy crisis is becoming more and more serious,especially in the power industry,which mainly uses fossil fuels such as oil and coal.It consumes a lot of energy every year,which not only leads to global warming,but also aggravates the pace of environmental pollution.Therefore,how to transition to low-carbon smart grid,change the traditional high-carbon and high-pollution power generation structure,increase the proportion of renewable energy generation,reduce the consumption of primary energy,and reduce carbon emissions,has become the primary problem to be solved urgently in the global power industry,and has great theoretical and practical significance for achieving low-carbon benefits.There are many factors affecting the low-carbon benefits of thermal power enterprises,but the quantitative analysis of key factors is lacking in domestic and foreign literatures.Therefore,on the basis of the analysis of the electricity and carbon characteristics of power supply,this paper puts forward three power generation modes and the relationship between carbon emissions;then,it expounds the necessity and selection principles of the low-carbon benefit factor analysis;finally,it summarizes the main factors of low-carbon benefit,and extracts three key factors of low-carbon benefit according to the research conclusions of international energy network.The application of renewable energy generation and low carbon technology plays a key role in the transformation of smart grid structure in traditional power grid.Firstly,the key factors of low-carbon benefits are quantitatively analyzed based on NAR dynamic neural network model,and compared with primary and secondary exponential smoothing and regression analysis.The results show that when the relevant parameters are set as follows: training,validation,the proportion of test sets is 70%,15%,15%,10 hidden layers,1 input and output,and 3 delay orders,NAR dynamics Next,using 2017 as the base year,the low-carbon benefits of thermal power enterprises in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2020 are predicted,which are calculated by CER and EUA respectively: 129(150),280(326),495(576)million yuan.Secondly,according to the low-carbon comprehensive benefit model,under the constraints of carbon quota and supply-demand balance,the low-carbon comprehensive benefit of Guizhou power generation industry in 2020 is predicted;when there is no sales of carbon emission rights and policy subsidy income,the maximum low-carbon comprehensive benefit in 2020 is 733 million yuan,and the optimal proportion of renewable and non-renewable energy power generation is 40.01% and 59.99%.While the optimal proportion of renewable and non-renewable energy generation remains unchanged when carbon emission rights and policy subsidies are earned,the maximum comprehensive benefit of low carbon in 2020 is 16.221 billion yuan(17.559 billion yuan).Finally,according to the conclusions of the study,some policy suggestions are put forward for the government of Guizhou Province and the power grid company.