Modeling And Risk Evaluation Of HSE Based On Fuzzy Petri Nets

As the basic requirement to the world oil market,the Health,Safety and Environment(HSE)management system has been widely recognized and applied by the petrochemical industries.However,frequent oil accidents in recent years have warned us that the HSE management level still needs to be improved.The short board of management can be found through risk assessment timely,so as to promote continuous improvement of HSE management system.In view of the present risk assessment methods not only are static,but also merely synthesize the evaluation results of assessment indexes,ignoring the credibility of the corresponding elements of the evaluation index,this thesis have studied the risk assessment method.(1)In consideration of the Fuzzy Petri Nets(FPN)has intuitive graphical representation and reasoning process is rigorous and calculation process has considered the credibility of elements,an assessment model of HSE management system based on Fuzzy Petri Nets is constructed to avoid the limitations of the traditional assessment methods.According to the features of the hierarchical structure of HSE management system,reasoning algorithms are given,which can improves the reliability of the evaluation results.(2)The credibility of the places and the confidence of transitions are given by the experts,which is subjective.To address this problem,a risk assessment method of HSE management system based on BP algorithm is established.BP algorithm has good ability of learning and self-adaptive ability,which can train and learn credibility of the places and the confidence of transitions end up with more objective and reliable initial parameter values.(3)Initial state matrix of FPN is usually gained by assumption or by the expert subjective assumptions,which can not reflect the characteristics of the object itself truly.To overcome these shortcomings,a new risk assessment method based on Cloud Model has been proposed.Calculation method of the parameters in the Cloud Model is defined according to the HSE management system assessment level,then initial state matrix is optimized based on the historical evaluation data.(4)Too many assessment elements make the calculation of evaluation too large and have an over-control effect on HSE management system.To deal with this problem,decision tree algorithm is introduced into the selection process of HSE management system elements,so that the key elements can be obtained and the assessment element system can be established.(5)The optimization model of FPN is applied to evaluate the HSE management system in an overseas oil project.First of all,HSE management system assessment model is established,then the weaknesses of management in the operation process are analyzed scientifically,and a series of reasonable suggestions are given for the continuous improvement of HSE management system.