Study On The Evaluation Of Development Benefit And Investment Portfolio Optimization On Offshore Oilfield

The evaluation of development profits of oilfield is an effective means to maximize the value of oil and gas assets,and it is also the basis for the major decisions of oil and gas projects.For overseas oil and gas projects,the evaluation of development income is the premise for realizing multi-objective portfolio optimization of oilfields.And the multi-objective portfolio optimization of overseas oilfields is also an important guarantee for better economic benefits of overseas oilfields.Based on a thorough investigation of domestic and foreign oil and gas development profits assessment methods and the specific requirements of the development of overseas oil fields,this paperestablish a production law forecasting method under different development methods of overseas oilfields with the use of the basic theory of reservoir engineering;And use mathematical methods such as probability statistics makes the following researches have been conducted on the overseas oilfield development revenue evaluation system:(1)Analyze the characteristics and requirements of overseas oilfield development,and establish overseas oilfield development assessment procedures from the perspective of development risk and profitability so that we can clarify the contents of overseas oilfield development pre-assessment;(2)For development risk assessment,using cost differential method and principal component analysis method to determine the impact weights of different indicators,and then establish a risk evaluation system for oil and gas development;(3)For the development of profitability evaluation,using the net present value method,analysis factors affecting of the development income,and determining the weight of each influencing factor and establishing a profitability evaluation system for oil and gas development.Using the Monte Carlo method makes an analysis of the uncertainty of the development proceeds.(4)With the reference of statistical models,macro-rules,and economic operating conditions,this paper establishes a three-tier investment portfolio optimization model,and solve with integer programming.And then establish a set of multi-objective combinatorial optimization methods for overseas oilfields.