Research On Investment Portfolio Optimization Of Oilfield Development Projects

Now,Chinese economic is developing rapidly,and the demand for oil resources is huge.However,the international oil market is turbulent.Which has determined that China should pay attention to domestic oil exploration.But on the other hand,oilfield development projects have high costs,high uncertainty and high investment risks,which bring great difficulties to the investment and operation of the oil company.How to rationally choose among the oilfield development projects submitted by each branch,and how to maximize the expected investment and achieve the balance between it and the expected invest risk,are urgent problems for the oil company.Based on the characteristics of oilfield development projects,and the problems existing in the current investment evaluation methods of the oil company,this paper designs a methodology for the portfolio optimization for oilfield development projects.Firstly,this paper constructs the portfolio optimization model by using the multi-objective planning and 0-1-type knapsack problem,and the objectives are the maximization of the expected benefit of the oil company's project portfolio and the minimization of the expected investment risk.Meanwhile,the constraints are the project portfolio development cost,capacity,economic benefits,etc.Among them,the expected benefit of the portfolio is the sum of the expected benefits of each project in the portfolio multiplied by its proportion of investment,and the expected investment risk is the cumulative value of the expected development risk of each project in the portfolio multiplied by the proportion of its investment.In addition,the distribution characteristics of project development risk and its capacity compliance rate is determined by the probability paper in this paper,and the project development risk is quantified by the Monte Carlo method with capacity compliance rate.Secondly,it is determined that the genetic algorithm is used to solve the portfolio optimization problem.According to the investment requirements of the oil company for the oilfield development projects,the genetic algorithm is improved from the following aspects:introducing the 0-1 type backpack problem in the initial stage of the population,improving the fitness function by designing grading optimization scheme,adding the fusion repair process to the operation of crossover and mutation,finding the optimal solution by using the local degradation optimization method.Then,analyzing the effectiveness of the results of improved genetic algorithm by using the degree of deviation and controversy indicators.Finally,using the form of case analysis,and comparing with the results of the original investment evaluation method of the oil company,the optimization effect of the paper model method is determined,and the feasibility and scientificity of the method of this paper in optimizing the investment portfolio of the oilfield development projects are verified.