Study On Linkages Among Oil Price,Gold Price And Dollar Exchange Rate Based On DCC-GARCH Model

Oil,gold,and US dollars are the three most concerned assets by governments,investors,and scholars in the world.This paper reasonably classifies and summaries various related literatures in the past and introduces the current status of the domestic and foreign markets,the formation of the prices and the influencing factors of these assets.Then defines the linkage relationship between the price and analysis the historical trend of prices to conduct a theoretical analysis of the linkage relationship among the three assets.In the empirical research,this paper uses time series model,Granger causality test,and the method of establishing DCC-GARCH model to analyze the price trends,volatility,and the relationship among them.It draws the following conclusions: There is a weak positive correlation between gold and crude oil,oil and gold have a negative correlation with dollar,in which the correlation between the dollar and gold is stronger but more unstable.The correlation may be changed due to sudden economic and political events,the changes of price determinants and other reasons.Finally,under the premise of understanding how the price changes and the relationship among them,this paper makes predictions about future changes and put forward corresponding suggestions.