A Study On Influencing Factors Of Carbon Price And Price Fluctuation

The issue of global warming has aroused people's attention day by day.Under the push of the United Nations,all countries in the world have put forward emission reduction targets and formulated emission reduction policies.As a responsible big country,China made a commitment on emission reduction at United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen on November 26,2009: By 2020,carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will drop by 40%-45%.In order to ensure the realization of China's carbon emission reduction targets,in October 2011,China's National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Conducting Pilot Emissions Trading" and proposed the establishment of a pilot carbon emissions trading market.Since the establishment of the Shenzhen Carbon Market Exchange on June 18,2013,China has successively established carbon pilot projects in seven proviences,and will set up a nationwide carbon emission trading market by the end of 2017.This thesis mainly focus on factors that influence China's carbon market price and the volatility of the price.This thesis is divided into two parts.The first part is to analyze the influencing factors of the carbon trading price in our country.First of all,we get the four major influencing factors of the carbon trading price.Second,we make an empirical analysis using the price of Hubei carbon market,which is the most active trading market in China's seven carbon emission trading markets,and draw the conclusion that the factors influencing China's carbon emissions trading price are the price of diesel oil,coal prices and macroeconomic factors.Extreme weather conditions and policy factors have little effect on the carbon price.The second part is to analyze the volatility of carbon price in our country.First,we analyze the price of carbon emission rights in Hubei and Shenzhen carbon market and find that it has heteroscedasticity.Then we use VAR and DCC-GARCH models to analyze the carbon price of Shenzhen and Hubei market,in order to find if there is the mean value spillover effect and the volatility spillover effect of the return on the two emissions trading market.Finally,we find the mean spillover effect and volatility spillover effect of the return rate between the Shenzhen and Hubei carbon markets in China.