Research On Carbon Emissions Of China's Industry Supply Chain Based On IO-LCA Model

As people around the world pay more and more attention to global warming,various countries have formulated various plans and systems to achieve low-carbon and energy-saving purposes.In particular,China is in the new normal stage of the economy,emphasizing that the economy must adjust the structure,grow steadily,and be sustainable development.Although the industries are actively responding to the implementation of China's policy measures to adjust energy consumption structure and industrial structure,they still face the problem of ensuring steady development under the premise of reducing resource consumption and reducing pollution emissions.Studying the measurement and assessment of carbon emissions in the supply chain of the industries can identify the heavier carbon emission industries and their related industries,and is crucial for China to formulate scientific and effective carbon emission reduction policies.Through background analysis and literature reading,this paper finds that the indirect carbon emissions of China's current industry is much larger than the direct carbon emissions,and there are few studies on refining the industry's indirect carbon emissions from the perspective of industry supply chain.Therefore,this paper establishes a life cycle assessment model based on input and output,combined with the binomial expansion of the complete consumption coefficient matrix,decomposes the carbon footprint of China's industry supply chain into six levels,and writes MATLAB program to calculate the carbon emissions of each level and elaborate its actual situation.Furthermore,a detailed comparative analysis in 2007 and 2012 of the carbon emissions ratio of various industries and the total carbon emissions of the industries is made to find the level with the largest carbon emissions.In addition,according to the results of the IO-LCA model and the meaning of the elastic coefficient,this paper also constructs a carbon emission path model based on sensitivity analysis to further analyze the path of carbon emissions in the consumer industry.At the same time,the MATLAB program is written to simplify the calculation,and the important carbon emission path of the consumer industry is plotted.The changes in the important carbon emission paths of the consumer industry in 2007 and 2012 and the changes in their carbon emissions impact on the consumer industry are comparedThe main conclusions of this paper are as follows.First,the vast majority of carbon footprints are generated from the production and supply of electricity and heat with petroleum,coking products and nuclear fuel processing.Second,the indirect carbon emissions generated by production and consumption between the industry supply chains are significantly higher than their direct carbon emissions,and the sixth layer of indirect carbon emissions is the largest,with the most significant performance in the consumer industry.Third,comparing the cumulative proportion of carbon emissions in the top ten industries in 2007 and 2012,it is found that the cumulative carbon emssion ratio curve of the two years is basically consistent.In the indirect carbon emission level,part of the ratio in 2012 is slightly higher than the data value in 2007.Fourth,after removing the industry relationship without supply,the important paths related to carbon emissions in the consumer industries in 2007 and 2012 are 66 and 67 respectively.Among them,the consumer industries' demand for pharmaceutical manufacturing's products or services,electricity and heat production and supply's demand for itself,chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing's demand for itself,and petroleum,coking and nuclear fuel processing industries' demand for transportation,warehousing and postil's products or services,are the four common paths that have the greatest impact on the carbon emissions of the consumer industry in the important carbon emission pathways of the two years.Fifth,in the sensitivity analysis,the value of the elasticity coefficient corresponding to the demand of the consumer industry for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry rose to the highest in the industry in 2012.This shows that the people of our country have a large demand for medicine-related materials at this stage,and the carbon emissions they bring account for a relatively high share of total domestic consumption.According to the empirical results,this paper believes that the industrial sectors should optimize the energy structure and use the energy generated in industrial production for many times.The manufacturing departments should actively research and develop energy-efficient buildings and automobiles,and vigorously promote green travel and develop low-carbon industries.In addition to the energy use,the focus of emission reduction for the consumer industry should also pay attention to the supply and demand of medicine,transportation postal and chemical products.There are two main innovations in this paper.The first is to consider the carbon emissions of the industry from the supply-demand relationship between the industry supply chains,and divide the industry supply chain into six layers according to direct or indirect demand.The study further clarified the distribution of indirect carbon emissions due to supply and demand,which is conducive to the improvement of relevant research.Second,combined with the IO-LCA model and sensitivity analysis,the carbon emission path model of the consumer industry was established,and the important carbon emission path directed chart of the industry was drawn,which is of great significance for identifying the emission reduction direction of the industry.