Oil Price,Exchange Rate And Stock Price

The study found that China's listed aviation companies have assets of 600 billion yuan and a market value of nearly 900 billion yuan.The share price of listed aviation companies has an important impact on China's capital market,and it has a significant effect on the economy.Due to the particularity of listed aviation companies,aviation transportation uses 'aviation fuel as the main energy source,so the cost of fuel oil has become the main operating cost of listed aviation companies.At the same time,aircraft leasing and purchase are denominated in foreign currencies,which causes listed aviation companies to assume a higher amount of foreign currency liabilities.Therefore the stock price is obviously affected by the crude oil and exchange rate in the international market.This paper provides a useful reference for listed aviation companies by studying the impact of changes in crude oil in the international market and the appreciation and' depreciation of the RMB on the share price trends of China's listed aviation companies.This article does the following work:First,it analyzes the relevant theories and transmission mechanisms that oil prices affect stock prices and exchange rates affect stock prices.Based on the theoretical basis,the development status and operating characteristics of listed aviation companies in China are summarized.Then,based on the operating characteristics of listed aviation companies,the impact of fluctuations in international oil prices and exchange rates on the stock prices of listed aviation companies is explored.Secondly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,using the method of empirical test,a time window from 2005 to 2018 was designed,and this paper selects the daily data from July 22,2005 to November 30,2018,and takes the closing price of Brent crude oil futures continuous contract,the middle price of US dollar to RMB exchange rate(direct pricing method)and China CITIC aviation air index as the research samples,establishing DCC-GARCH and BEKK-GARCH model to explore the dynamic correlation and volatility spillover effect among international crude oil price,RMB exchange rate and the stock price of listed airlines.This article has the following findings:The correlation coefficient between international crude oil price,RMB exchange rate and the stock price of listed airline companies fluctuates greatly,with time-varying characteristics,and the dynamic correlation coefficient between international crude oil price and the stock price of listed airline companies fluctuates greatly,followed by that between RMB exchange rate and the stock price of listed airline companies;The linkage between international crude oil price and the stock price of listed airline companies is higher than that between RMB exchange rate and the stock price of listed airline companies;There is a significant negative correlation between the stock price of listed airline companies and international crude oil price and RMB exchange rate.The rise of international oil price will lead to the decline of stock price,while the appreciation of RMB will lead to the rise of stock price.In addition,with the help of Wald test,it is known that there is a volatility spillover effect from the international crude oil price and RMB exchange rate to the stock price of the listed airline companies,that is,the volatility information of the two markets will be transmitted to the stock price of the listed airline companies in China,thus causing the volatility of the stock price of the listed airline companies.Finally,on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical test,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions for aviation listed companies.