Development Scenario Of Electric Vehicle In China And Analysis Of Cobalt Demand

Stock of cobalt in China electric car batteries and their regenerative potential of accurate estimation,help for the medium and long term forecast the development of Chinese electric car demand of cobalt,adaptive policy guarantee the development of Chinese electric cars will provide a scientific basis for the security of supply of cobalt required for nearly 10 years,the development of China's electric car very fast,from 2009 in 07600 to a surge in 2019 to 3.81 million.This article USES the material flow analysis method reveals the development of the electric car industry in our country and the change of the stock of cobalt characteristics,constructs the Chinese electric car cobalt metabolic material flow analysis model,calculates the 31 provinces across the country in 2009 ~ 2019 and the history of the electric car battery cobalt,cobalt and long-term electric car industry to China stock change trend and its saturation level has carried out the simulation,to ensure the electric car development and sustainable supply cobalt demand policy Suggestions and theoretical supportThis paper firstly constructs the cobalt material flow model in the electric vehicle system,analyzes the cobalt stock in the electric vehicle system through the material flow analysis method,and explores the evolution trend of cobalt stock in China's electric vehicles under different scenarios on national and provincial scales,and reveals the cobalt demand under different scenarios.The main conclusions obtained in this article include:(1)The proportion of ternary power batteries in the power battery structure ranges from 0% to 62.13%.According to the installed capacity data,the national cobalt demand has increased from 7.82 tons in 2012 to 6496 tons in 2018.The auto industry cobalt stock reached 28,900 tons.(2)The evolution trend of cobalt stocks at the inter-provincial scale is directly related to the development of various regions.In 2018,the top ten provinces of cobalt stocks in the electric vehicle industry are Beijing,Guangdong,Shandong,Shanghai,Hubei,and Anhui.Province,Shaanxi Province,Sichuan Province,Shanxi Province,Zhejiang Province.(3)The historical changes of cobalt stocks in electric vehicle power batteries show a rapid and steady growth trend.In just eight years,the cobalt stocks in the electric vehicle industry increased from 20 tons to 28,900 tons.Scenario analysis according to the changes in cobalt stocks can provide:(1)Under different development scenarios of electric vehicle ownership,my country's cobalt stock in the electric vehicle industry will be between 1.95 million tons and 2.71 million tons in 2050.(2)Under different scenarios of battery technology development,my country's cobalt stock in the electric vehicle industry will be between 2.22 million tons and 3.34 million tons in 2050.(3)Under different recycling paths,the higher the recovery rate,the less cobalt resources are needed.The high,medium and low scenarios are the highest demand for cobalt resources around 2035.The higher the recycling efficiency,the more the cobalt resources can be supplied to the electric vehicle industry.The more there is,the less demand for new cobalt.The thesis constructs the cobalt material flow model in the electric vehicle system for the first time,analyzes the cobalt stock in the electric vehicle system through the material flow analysis method,and explores the evolution of the cobalt stock in China's electric vehicles under different scenarios at the national and provincial scale The trend reveals the cobalt demand in different scenarios.