Regional Forecast Of China's Carbon Emission Peak In 2030 And Analysis Of Influencing Factors

China has been the world's largest carbon emitter for 13 consecutive years.In 2018,China's carbon dioxide emissions have exceeded 10 billion tons,accounting for more than a quarter of the world's total carbon dioxide emissions.The country that produces far more carbon emissions than the United States,the world's second largest carbon emitter.Obviously,China,which is far ahead in total carbon dioxide emissions,will play a decisive role in whether the global greenhouse effect can be effectively controlled.China's future carbon dioxide development trend will play a key role in whether global warming is not effectively controlled.Since China has been implementing the regional development strategy of "four major sectors" in recent years,our research on China's future carbon emission development and influencing factors will be based on these four major regions.In this article,we first analyzed the historical development trends of the four major regional economies,population,urbanization and carbon emissions,and found that there are great differences in the economic development level and carbon emission control level among the four major regions.The eastern region has the most intensive and efficient economic development mode.We compare China's environmental kuznets curve of region and abroad,found that the relationship between economic development and pollution emissions varies from region to region and country to country.Based on the analysis of the key provinces and cities for emission reduction,Hebei,Shandong,Shanxi,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are the key areas in the four major regions to complete the task of emission reduction.In order to more comprehensively depict the future development path of China's carbon emissions,we used an IPAT model to design 48 peak CO2 emission scenarios.We used a centralized DEA to evaluate the allocative efficiency of scenario-based CO2 emission paths.By analyzing the distribution efficiency and potential output capacity of the peak-reaching scenario with implementability,we found that maintaining relatively high GDP growth(around 6%),reducing energy intensity by about 75%of average annual decline rate of 2005-2015(around 4%),and increasing non-fossil energy to 21%to meet the Innovation plan of energy technology revolution 2016-2030 requirements is the most efficient low-carbon behaviors towards 2030 peak CO2 emissions of 10.57Gt.We also found that China can potentially reduce CO2 emission intensity(CEI)by up to 72.7%compared to the 2005 level in 2030,and therefore that official CEI reduction targets(60-65%)are well within reach.CEI will not readily converge in future years due to the large differences in energy-saving and emission abatement potential across different regions in China;the rank of convergence is CO2>CO2 per capita>CEI.In order to better analyze the influencing factors of the four major regions,the generalized divisia index method is adopted to identify the contribution of factors influencing the decomposition of the four region,It is found that economic scale,low carbon per unit output value,energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions of each region have made great contributions to the changes in carbon dioxide emissions under historical trends.However,in the future path of the predicted optimal scenario,only economic scale and low carbon per unit output value have a great contribution to the changes in carbon dioxide emissions.