Research On The Determinants And Peaking Path Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions For China's Petrochemical Industry

With the growing problem of climate change caused by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide,how to reduce carbon emissions to effectively curb the trend of global warming has become a hot topic.As the largest carbon dioxide emitter,China is actively undertaking the corresponding responsibility of emission reduction.Petrochemical industry is a basic industry in China's economic development.The realization of the peak carbon emission target in this industry has seriously affected the realization of the overall national emission reduction target.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the peak path of carbon dioxide emissions in the petrochemical industry,so as to promote the realization of the overall national carbon emission reduction goal.Firstly,based on the historical changes of carbon dioxide emissions in China's petrochemical industry,this paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions from China's petrochemical industry and its five sub-industries in 2000-2017 by using the carbon emission coefficient method.On this basis,the influence factors of carbon dioxide emissions are decomposed by using the generalized Divisia index method,and according to the decomposition results,combined with scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation,the different evolution trends of carbon dioxide emissions of petrochemical industry in 2018-2030 under three scenarios are predicted.Finally,the paper decomposes the factors of carbon dioxide emission for the scenario of achieving the peak,and analyzes the different contributions of each factor in the process of promoting the carbon dioxide emission of petrochemical industry to reach the peak,so as to provide the corresponding emission reduction path for the petrochemical industry to achieve the carbon emission peak.The results of this paper show that: Firstly,the results of the decomposition of the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in the petrochemical industry and its five sub-sectors are similar.Investment,economic output and energy consumption are the main factors to promote the growth of carbon dioxide emissions.Investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity are the key factors to promote the descending of carbon dioxide emissions,while the emission reduction effects of energy consumption carbon intensity,energy intensity and investment efficiency need to be improved.Secondly,the petrochemical industry in the benchmark scenario,policy intervention scenarios,technology breakthrough scenario,the drop target of output carbon intensity can be achieved,but only under the technology breakthrough scenario,there will be a peak of carbon dioxide emissions before 2030,and the technology breakthrough scenario has greater emission reduction potential.Thirdly,the investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity are the key factors driving the petrochemical industry to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emission.The improvement of energy efficiency,investment efficiency and energy structure assisted the petrochemical industry to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.