Study On The Fluctuation Of China's Carbon Emission Trading Warket And The Influencing Factors Of Carbon

Since the 21st century,with the rapid development of global economy and the support of industrialization,a large number of greenhouse gases have attracted the attention of all countries in the world.The melting of glaciers is not only related to the north and south poles,but also closely related to the sustainable development of our human beings.In terms of the carbon emissions of all countries in the world,China is a large country of carbon emissions,and the formation and development of carbon market are related to each other For the later,the trading system and risk control are not as perfect as other international carbon emission trading markets.Therefore,our analysis on the volatility of China's carbon trading price and the factors affecting the carbon trading price is of great significance to promote the stable development of China's carbon trading market.Eight carbon emission trading pilots have been set up in China.The development of each pilot is different.Therefore,the research object of this paper is mainly seven carbon emission trading pilots.The daily transaction average price is selected to analyze the volatility of China's carbon emission trading price,and the transaction price of seven carbon trading pilots is empirically tested by GARCH-M model.It is found that the volatility of carbon trading price in China's carbon trading pilot has aggregation effect.From the GARCH-M estimation results of each carbon trading pilot,we can get that the return rate of carbon trading in the market has the characteristics of high risk.Moreover,the research results show that the volatility characteristics of carbon trading price in Beijing,Shenzhen and Fujian are closer to the mature financial market.Next,the influencing factors of carbon trading price are analyzed.The research object of this paper is the data of seven carbon emission trading pilots in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Shenzhen,Hubei,Fujian and Chongqing.The explained variable is the daily average price of carbon emission trading in each carbon emission trading pilot.The temperature,oil(95 gasoline),coal(main coking coal),natural gas(industrial pipeline gas)are selected from two aspects of climate impact and energy price impact The four factors are explanatory variables.The panel data model is established.The correlation between the explanatory variables and the explanatory variables is analyzed by the panel model with random influence and variable intercept.Through our research,we find that when the price of gasoline rises,the price of carbon trading falls;when the price of gas rises,the price of carbon trading rises;this research result is consistent with the reality and economic significance.The results show that the influence between the price of main coking coal and the price of carbon trading is not obvious,which may be because the main coking coal is mainly used for smelting steel.The results of this study show that the effect of temperature change on carbon trading price is not obvious.The above research provides a reference for establishing a reasonable and effective market mechanism of carbon emission trading,and provides different low-carbon options for enterprises participating in carbon emission trading.