Study On Risk Assessment Of Navigation Safety In Port Waters Of Dapeng Bay LNG Terminal

Due to the complexity of traffic management,port waters are prone to become areas with high incidence of water traffic accidents.The navigation and operation of LNG ships in the port waters cannot be separated from the comprehensive safety assessment of the port waters.In order to evaluate the safety of port waters scientifically,reasonably and comprehensively,on the basis of previous studies and the accident data,this paper identifies the dangerous factors of LNG ships during navigation,operation and anchoring process,and establishes LNG ships.The accident tree model of similar accidents builds the safety evaluation index system of LNG wharf port waters,which effectively identifies the transportation safety risks of LNG ships,can provide decision-making basis for daily safety management of LNG ships,reduce the frequency of accidents,and thus ensure Life and property safety.The research results of this article mainly include the following:(1)Identified the main danger sources in the waters of the Dapeng Bay LNG terminal port through the pre-hazard analysis method,and selected the evaluation indicators of the navigation process,operation process and anchoring process through the Delphi method,and established the Dapeng Bay LNG terminal waters Safety evaluation system.(2)Through the research and analysis of the accidents of LNG ships in port waters,the accident tree models of various types of accidents were established,such as the accident tree model of the collision between the LNG ship and other ships,the accident tree model of the collision of the anchorage of the LNG ship,etc.The minimum diameter set,probability importance,and accident occurrence probability of each model clarify the risk of each accident type.(3)Interpret and use the PHA-FTA-Gray AHP method to establish a comprehensive evaluation model with the Dapeng Bay LNG terminal port water area as the research object,and conduct a safety evaluation of the water area.The evaluation calculation results show that,in the existing safety management order,LNG ships are at the level between general risk and low risk during navigation,anchoring,and operation in Dapeng Bay LNG terminal port waters,which can basically meet the requirements of navigation safety need.(4)According to the overall safety evaluation results,decision-making recommendations are made around the safety management of Dapeng Bay waters through weights and probability importance,such as strengthening personnel training and improving port management.According to the safety assessment of the port water area of Dapeng Bay LNG terminal,the comprehensive evaluation model of the port water area of Dapeng Bay LNG terminal constructed by combining PHA and FTA in the gray AHP analysis method is reasonable and feasible.The research and calculation process of this article can provide a theoretical basis for the safe operation of LNG wharf port waters.The results and suggestions provide a realistic reference for ensuring the safety of LNG ship navigation and port management.