Analysis Of The Provincial Ecological Security And Its Influencing Factors In China

Ecological prosperity leads to civilized prosperity and ecological recession leads to civilized recession.The development of China is undergoing threats from water pollution,air pollution,land degradation,biodiversity loss,soil heavy metal pollution and other ecological and environmental problems.Discordances between resource allocation and economic development and the prominent contradictions between people and land are both greatly affects China's sustainable development.Therefore,quantitative evaluation of China's ecological security has become extremely important to promote the process of sustainable development.This paper focuses on the per capita ecological footprint,per capita ecological carrying capacity and other parameters of 31 provinces and cities of China from 2000 to 2015 with the ecological footprint model based on net primary productivity(EF-NPP).Spatial autocorrelation is used to evaluate the spatial variation characteristics of per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity.Meantime,the ecological pressure index,ten thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint,ecological footprint diversity index and ecological economic system development capacity index are introduced as comprehensive evaluation indexes of ecological security to further evaluate the ecological security of 31 provinces and cities in China.Finally,the partial least square regression model(PLS)was used to analyze the influencing factors of per capita ecological footprint in East,Middle and West China.The main results are shown in the following aspects(1)The per capita ecological footprint of the whole country showed an increasing trend except Beijing and Shanghai which continued to decline from2000 to 2015.The per capita ecological footprint of forest land fluctuated and decreased,the other types of land increased gradually.The proportion of per capita ecological footprint of fossil energy land andcultivated land is the higher than the other land uses,and land used for fossil energy is gradually increasing while the cultivated land is gradually decreasing.Followed by the proportion of forest land and construction land.The per capita ecological footprint shows the spatial variation characteristics of high values in the north and low values in the south.(2)The per capita ecological carrying capacity showed decreased trend gradually,ranging from 0.914hm2/person in 2000 to 0.796hm2/person in 2015.The per capita ecological carrying capacity of forest land,cultivated land,grassland and water body decreased gradually,and the construction land increased gradually.The ratio of per capita ecological carrying capacity of forestland and cultivated land is the highest,followed by grassland and construction land,with the smallest water body.The proportions of forest land and cultivated land per capita ecological carrying capacity are the highest among different land uses,followed by grassland and construction land.And water body shows the lowest proportion.The per capita ecological carrying capacity shows the spatial characteristics of high values in the west and low values in the east.(3)According to the analysis of per capita ecological deficit/surplus,Tibet(2000-2015)and Yunnan(2000-2002)are in the state of ecological surplus,while others different years,provinces and cities are in the state of ecological deficit.During 2000 to 2015,the per capita ecological deficit between Beijing and Shanghai continued to decrease,while others are on the rise.The decrease of Tibet's per capita ecological surplus is due to the decrease of its ecological carrying capacity.The areas with serious ecological deficit per capita are mainly located in the north and northeast,while the south and southeast coastal are relatively moderate.(4)The global Moran?s I index shows that the spatial correlation of per capita ecological footprint is high and weak.The "high-high" cluster of per capita ecological footprint is mainly located in the northern region,while the "low-low" cluster is located in the southwest,south China and central China and is weakening.The "high-high" cluster of per capita ecological carrying capacity is located in Qinghai,Tibet and Yunnan,which is mainly affectedby the natural environment.The "low-low" cluster is mainly located in the North China Plain and the Huanghuaihai Plain.The "low-high" cluster is located in Xinjiang and Sichuan.(5)During the study period,China's ecological stress index continued to rise.The level of ecological pressure index indicates that Tibet is in a very safe state and other provinces and cities are under different degrees of ecological pressure and serious ecological security problems.The ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP has been decreasing,which indicates that the efficiency of resource utilization has been improved.The ecological footprint diversity index has gradually decreased,system stability has decreased.The development ability of eco-economic system indicates that the economic development ability of most provinces and cities is gradually enhanced.(6)PLS results show that the ecological security of the eastern region is affected by the added value of forestry,intermediate consumption of forestry and added value of fishery.The central part of China is significantly affected by the total power of agricultural machinery,the proportion of secondary industry in GDP and the intermediate consumption of animal husbandry.The added value of forestry,animal husbandry,intermediate consumption of fishery and the proportion of secondary industry in GDP have a significant impact on the ecological security of the western region.Through the research,it is found that it plays an important role in China's ecological security to further improve the efficiency of resource utilization,guarantee and improve the stability of regional environment,and accelerate the regional industrial technological innovation and adjustment of industrial structure.