Research On Early Warning Method Of Safety Risk In Cement Production Enterprises

With the gradual improvement of the requirements of government safety management for enterprises in our country,as well as the need for safety safety standardization and dual prevention mechanism construction for enterprise safety risk early warning,research on accident early warning methods has played an important role in various fields.However,most of the accidents in cement production enterprises are caused by human operations,and there is no obvious regularity for all kinds of accidents that occur in cement production enterprises.These characteristics determine that the existing warning methods cannot achieve good results.Based on the above problems,this study based on the statistical analysis results of accidents in cement production enterprises in recent years,using the probability of basic events in the accident process as the starting point,and using the accident scenario prediction analysis method to construct an early warning method for cement production enterprises.Firstly,the cause of the accident is analyzed through the theory of disturbance origin,which provides a comprehensive and reliable set of basic events for the accident scenario prediction model.The Delphi method is used to determine the mutual influence relationship between the basic events;The test was carried out to solve the problem of unscientific selection of event sets in the scenario prediction analysis method.Finally,based on the theory of interpretation structure model,a set of accident scenario pattern analysis platform was developed,and the accident scenario model was constructed to clarify the multiple layers between basic events.The hierarchicalrelationship and the logical sequence of accident development provide a basis for decision makers to select appropriate preventive and response measures.According to the above method,this study takes the cement storage enterprise's clearing house collapse accident as an example,and uses this method to carry out early warning analysis on the consequences of the accident.Finally,taking the "May 26" collapse accident of a cement plant as an example,the feasibility and effectiveness of the scenario prediction analysis method were verified by examples.The results of this study show that the early warning method based on scenario prediction analysis can effectively realize the early warning work of the safety risk of cement production enterprises,can accurately and effectively predict the probability of accident occurrence,can give early warning information according to the actual situation,and is a decision maker Providing evidence in the process of taking accident prevention and response measures can help improve the safety management level of cement production enterprises.