The Research On The Early Warning For Air Quaility Of “Kuytun-dashanzi-Usu” Economic Zone Based On The Elasiticity

With the advancement of industrialization, urbanization and economic integration, regional air pollution problem has caused widespread concern in our government and society. In order to make the area of atmospheric environmental quality and economic and social development in harmony,we need to implement early intervention measures to take effective measures to protect the environment and improve regional air quality. In this paper, Xinjiang, “Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu” economic zone as the research object, based on the elastic coefficient method to build a indicators system of early warning for air quality of “Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu” economic zone. The main contents are as follows:（1） Based on principal component analysis（PCA） method, carried out comprehensive assessment of environmental air quality 2010-2014 period in Xinjiang “Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu ”economic belt, we found that SO₂ is the main factor to affect environment air quality of “Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu”economic belt, showing an increasing trend of PM10 contamination year by year.（2） According to mathematical statistics, studied the distributed characteristics of mainly air pollutant in Xinjiang“Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu” economic zone, as well as the correlation between meteorological factors and air pollutant concentrations. We find that the Pearson correlation coefficient is not significant between air pollutants SO₂, NOx, PM10 and temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, wind direction.（3） Based on the elastic coefficient method to determine four early warning indicators :the elasticity of energy consumption and SO₂, NOx, PM10 emissions elasticity. On this basis, constructed the early warning indicator system for the atmospheric environment of “Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu”economic zone, and set up five warning level: satisfactory, no alarm, low alarm, medium alarm, giant alarm, and identified the warning limits. Where in: Giant alarm limit is greater than 1, medium alarm limits of 0-1, satisfactory is less than 0. The results showed no alarm and low alarm limits of air pollutants in“Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu” economic zone was less than 0, low energy consumption and no alarm limits between 0-0.73. According to early warning indicators, warning limit, warning levels, predicted results, it is judged the alarm situation for air quality of “Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu” area from 2010 to 2014 and the target year 2020.（4）The use of scenario analysis to study the trends of GDP, energy consumption and air pollutants SO₂, NOx, PM10 emissions volume in target year 2020 with four scenarios analysis:the open, the baseline scenario, scene control and enhanced control while maintaining the growth of GDP. On the basis of the assessment and early warning for atmospheric environmental quality of “Kuytun-Dashanzi-Usu” economic zone, put forward measures to protect and further improve the quality of atmospheric environment.