| Land is a complex system of social economy and ecology,which has dual functions of production and ecology on the basis of human survival development.At present,there are some problems,such as paying attention to economic benefits and neglecting ecological benefits,in the process of land resources' development and utilization in China,which make the intensity of land resources utilization more and more serious and the land ecological environment is under increasing pressure.Therefore,the evaluation of land ecological security has become a hot issue in related fields,and many valuable research results have been obtained.With the deepening of the research on land ecological security assessment,the methods of land ecological security assessment have been enriched and promoted.However,due to the complexity of land ecological security,previous understanding of land ecological security is limited,which leads to the theoretical research of land ecological security evaluation is still in the exploration stage.Therefore,how to scientifically build the land ecological security evaluation index and reasonably select the land ecological security evaluation method is still a difficult problem in the field of land ecological security research.This paper collects the research data from consulting statistical yearbooks and government working reports from Jilin Province and related cities.Based on the theories of sustainable utilization,human-land relationship and system science,we construct the evaluation index system of land ecological security in Jilin Province by using the PSR model,then,evaluates the land ecological security in Jilin Province and related cities(prefectures)by using the collected research data.Eventually,we use the grey prediction model(GM(1,1)Model)to predict the change trend of land ecological security in Jilin Province and related cities(prefectures).The results show that:(1)The land ecological security in Jilin province is on the whole good,and the land ecological pressure fluctuates greatlyThe level of land ecological security in Jilin Province has been continuously improved from 1997 to 2018.In the next five years,the situation of land ecological security in Jilin Province will continue to develop towards a better trend,and the level of land security will reach a state of no alarm in 2022.In the subsystem of PSR model,the pressure of land ecological security in Jilin province continues to decrease,and the state of land ecological security is also improved,and the response of land ecological security continues to promote.However,we should pay attention to the change trend of indicators,such as natural disasters,the increase of per capita construction land area,and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste,bringing about impact on land ecological security.The research results show that:(2)The situation of land ecological security in all cities(prefectures)is improving,and the levels of land ecological security are differentThe situation of land ecological security in all cities and prefectures of Jilin Province is improved on the whole,but the improvement rate is different,and the level of land ecological security is also different.At present,Liaoyuan city has the highest level of land ecological security,Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and Baicheng city rank as second and third position respectively,however,Jilin city has the lowest level of land ecological security.Taking 2003,2008,2013 and 2017 as the time points,the land ecological security of cities(prefectures)in Jilin Province has been evaluated.We observed that,in 2003,the problem of land ecological security in all cities(prefectures)of Jilin Province was more serious,and Changchun and Jilin were in the stage of heavy police situation,which better than other cities(prefectures).In 2008,Songyuan and Siping took the lead in entering the stage of medium police situation,and other cities(prefectures)entered the stage of heavy police situation.In 2013,Songyuan City,Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and Baicheng city took the lead in entering the stage of light police situation,while other cities(prefectures)entered the stage of medium police situation;in 2017,except Jilin City,other cities(prefectures)entered the stage of light police situation.In terms of land ecological security police situation prediction,limited by the availability and integrity of data based on,the selected prediction during 2003-2017.The most important results show that Changchun City will enter into the state of no alarm in 2020,and Jilin city is predicted to enter into the state of light alarm in 2018,and other cities have entered into the state of no alarm in 2018.(3)The pressure system and state system fluctuate greatly in each city(prefecture),and the response system rises steadilyIn the subsystem of PSR model,the pressure system and state system have great influence on the fluctuation of comprehensive index of land ecological security in all cities and prefectures of Jilin Province.The response system basically shows the trend of continuous rise with small fluctuation range.The common factors have a significant impact on the land ecological security of all cities(prefectures)in Jilin Province,including economic development,urban greening construction,population change,energy conservation and emission reduction technology,etc.The indicators that have a great influence on the difference of land ecological security status in the cities and prefectures of Jilin province include population density,fertilizer use per unit of cultivated land,cultivated land area occupied by construction,green land area per capita,construction land area per capita,added value of non-agricultural industry per unit of construction land,comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste,agricultural mechanization level,per capita net income of farmers,etc.In view of the above-mentioned analysis,we believe that Jilin Province should take active measures to reduce the pressure of land ecological security,improving the state of land ecological security.For example,we should further promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of Jilin Province,reducing the proportion of high energy consumption and high pollution industries in the economic structure.In addition,vigorously develop low energy consumption and low pollution industries also,reasonably regulate and control the urban population density,and relieve the pressure on the land ecology caused by the rapid increase of population in the central city,which will control the number of construction land and promote the intensive use of land.At the same time,will control the chemical fertilizer Consumption,reduce land pollution,increase the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP and forest land coverage,reasonably formulate and strictly implement land use planning and other measures,so as to promote the sustainable improvement of land ecological security in Jilin Province. |
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