| The large-scale development of chemical industry park makes the coupling degree of chemical industry more and more complicated,and the safety production situations become more and more serious.Since most of the chemical parks are concentrated in the petroleum and chemical industries,involving a large number of dangerous chemicals,if an accident occurs in one place,it is likely to cause chain accidents to occur one after another,posing a threat to the entire chemical park and its surrounding environment.Therefore,it is of great significance for the intelligent and safe construction of chemical industrial parks to study the propagation process of accidents and determine the influencing factors and propagation paths of key accidents.Based on the related theory of complex network,this paper establishes the network model of accident chain in chemical industry park,and studies the mechanism of accident propagation in chemical industry park according to the topological structure of accident chain network.Firstly,a general network model of accident chain in chemical industrial park is established based on complex network theory and cause-and-effect relationship.The importance of the nodes in the network of accident chain in chemical industrial park was evaluated by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the TOPSIS method with entropy weighting and the weighted Leader Rank algorithm with chain in and chain out factors.Secondly,considering the influence of the network topology and the accident propagation characteristics of nodes on the node propagation capability of the chemical industry accident chain network,the MDD algorithm and the method of node accident propagation probability are used to spread the accidents of all nodes in the chemicalindustry park accident chain network.Ability to measure,and then identify the nodes with strong accident transmission ability in the accident chain network of chemical parks.Finally,Based on node degree of the load distribution rules of chemical industrial accident chain nodes in a network of accident probability calculation,chemical industrial accident chain network node accident probability and the network is close to the edge of the accident,combining to indicate that the network has spread to the edge of the accident attribute,the use of chemical industrial park incident chain network to edge propagation characteristic edge betweenness load model structure and attribute definition accident transmission intensity,and on the basis of transmission intensity values determine the size of the chemical industrial accident of key chain network transmission path.The case study shows that the method proposed in this paper can accurately discover the key influencing factors and the propagation path of key accidents in the accident chain network of chemical industrial parks,and provide theoretical basis and decision support for the prevention and prediction of accidents in chemical industrial parks. |
