Research On Spacecraft Layout Optimization Based On Reliability Analysis In Space Debris Environment

Due to the increasing numbers of space debris in space,the probability of spacecraft impacted by space debris is increasing,which leads to a high probability of spacecraft failure due to the impact of space debris.In the space debris environment,the failure of the whole satellite is often caused by the damage of its components.Therefore,in order to improve the survivability of the satellite in the space debris environment,it is necessary to find out the important components of the satellite and make reasonable layout to improve the survivability of the whole satellite in the space debris environment.This paper mainly studies the satellite layout optimization method based on reliability analysis.In this paper,two aspects of work are mainly carried out.The first one is to find out the weak links in the satellite and the components that are critical to the success or failure of the satellite mission through the reliability analysis of the satellite;on the other hand,the layout optimization model of spacecraft components in the space debris environment is established,and the optimization calculation is carried out.This paper mainly studies the following aspects:The traditional fault tree analysis method and Bayesian network analysis method are used to analyze the satellite failure model,from which the relative probability importance of each bottom event and the posterior probability of each root node can be calculated.These two values can well describe the importance of each component in the satellite,so as to determine the weak link in the satellite.Aiming at the shortcoming that traditional fault tree can only analyze two states,Bayesian network is established based on fuzzy theory.The Bayesian network based on fuzzy theory can deal with the situation of multi-state fault,describe the fault state more accurately and carefully,and the conclusion is more reliable.Based on the existing survivability assessment software in space debris environment,the failure assessment model of each component of satellite system in space debris environment is established,and the simulation evaluation analysis is carried out by using this model.Combined with the failure probability evaluation model of spacecraft components and the importance of each component of spacecraft,the optimization model of spacecraft components is established,and a variety of optimization schemes are used to carry out optimization analysis,and relevant conclusions in line with the actual situation are obtained.