Research On Sustainable Development Of Water,energy And Food In China Based On System Dynamics

Water,energy and food are the strategic resources for the sustainable development of our society,and their related research has gradually become a topic of social concern.Whether China’s social needs can be met under conditions of limited resources is directly related to the stability of our society and the security of the country.In order to explore the sustainable development of China’s water,energy and food,the three subsystems of China’s water,energy and grain were constructed,and using curve fitting to determine model variable relationships.Based on the sensitivity and error test,the system dynamics model was adopted for China.The water-energy-food system is simulated and predicted.Finally,according to the internal characteristics of the system and the external environment constraints,the characteristics of China’s resource demand changes under different scenarios are analyzed.Provide reference for the formulation of China’s waterenergy-food integrated management policy.The study found that China’s water,energy and food are closely related.By 2026,the total consumption of water resources will be about 589.362 billion cubic meters.The total energy consumption reached 556.431 million tons of standard coal.The total energy consumption was gradually increasing but the energy utilization efficiency was improved.The total food consumption is about 720.746 million tons.China’s self-sufficiency rate of food is rising and the phenomenon of "three simultaneous increases" in food still exists.The result of scenario analysis shows that under the high level of economic development,the total energy consumption increases,but the total water consumption decreases.Under the scenario of low birth rate,the total consumption of food and energy decreases but the total consumption of water resources increases.In the scenario of reducing the proportion of non-clean energy consumption,the emission of pollution will be greatly reduced.