Analysis Of The Impact Of The Us Attitude Of The Paris Agreement On International Crude Oil Price

In recent years,more and more political and economic events have caused fluctuations in oil prices.Compared with general products,oil prices have shown more volatility.At present,the external dependence of China's crude oil has reached 70.9%.Therefore,it is crucial to accurately analyze the impact of events on oil prices and determine the impact of various factors on oil prices.This article takes the US exit from the Paris Agreement as an entry point,analyzes the influencing factors of oil prices and the volatility mechanism,and uses different empirical methods to conduct crude oil price fluctuations caused by this political event from a short-term and long-term perspective.An empirical analysis.Firstly,the daily data of WTI crude oil price is selected,and the thinking of the event analysis method is used to analyze the impact of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement on international crude oil prices.Through empirical tests,it is found that during the event window,the cumulative excess return rate of international crude oil prices It reached-15.1%,and this negative impact was significant at a 5% confidence level,with a single-day maximum excess yield of-4.94%.Subsequently,the monthly data of WTI crude oil price was selected.Through the multiple regression and backward elimination method,the influencing factors were initially investigated,and the global oil inventories were selected.The US dollar index,the long-short ratio of crude oil futures and the commodity price trend were the cores to explain the fluctuation of oil prices.The variable,together with the “Paris Agreement” attention factor,constructs a structural vector autoregressive model(SVAR)along with the spot price of WTI crude oil,and then analyzes the US exit from the Paris Agreement on oil price fluctuations by means of impulse response and variance decomposition.Influence direction and intensity of interpretation.The study found that the United States withdrew from the "Paris Agreement",the international oil price has a clear downward trend in the short term,and then the oil price has rebounded to some extent.After 10 periods,this effect tends to zero,but this political event explains the fluctuation of crude oil price.Lower,only 1.2%.As a country with high crude oil dependence,China should fully understand the many influencing factors of crude oil price trend,on the one hand,grasp the crude oil market and protect its own interests;on the other hand,actively participate in the construction of international crude oil market and enhance the right to speak.