The Influence Of International Oil Price Shock On China's Macro-economy

Energy security is closely related to the development of a country.Currently,China is the world's second largest economy and the second largest crude oil consumer,and its oil dependence has increased year by year,which reached the 60%in 2015.However,the international crude oil market has been fluctuating frequently since the oil crisis in the 1970s,and has experienced many ups and downs.With the acceleration of economic globalization,China's relations with the world economy are becoming more and more close,and the impact of crude oil price shocks has the transmission effect of the whole body.Meanwhile,China's opening-up level rising,the sensitivity of the macro economy to external shocks increases.Thus,exploring the effects on China's macro economy of international crude oil price fluctuations becomes necessary.Based on the SVAR model,this paper makes an empirical study on this problem.This paper firstly introduces the realistic background and research significance of the topic,and summarizes the research results of the past scholars by reading relevant literatures.Secondly,this paper reviews the background of three oil crises in the 20th century as well as the impact in our country,and introduces the common way of oil prices impact on macroeconomic transmission and mechanism.Then,this paper conducted the empirical study,which included the ADF unit root test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.The empirical results show that,after the impact of the standard deviation of oil price,the real GDP growth rate did not decrease,but slightly increased in the short term.Prices responded quickly and rose in the first three period and then towards deflation.Meanwhile,the variance decomposition results showed that the oil price impact has a contribution rate of about 7.9%.The money supply was negative in the second period,and the interest rate showed a positive response in the second period.The response trend of the two was basically consistent,and at the same time,it reached the maximum in the second period.This suggests that monetary authorities respond to international oil shocks by tightening monetary policy,recycling liquidity and raising interest rates.It is worth noting that inflation has turned into deflation after a period of time,which may be due to excessive monetary policy response.The oil dependency was quickly negative after being hit by the oil price and then leveled off.Stock index also made a negative response rapidly,reaching its maximum in the second period,and then gradually decreased in negative impact,and stabilized in the 12th period.The impact of the oil price will be quickly reflected in industries such as industry,transport and electricity,which are closely related to oil.Finally,this paper summarizes the empirical conclusions and puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the perspectives of developing new energy sources,building energy diplomacy and improving domestic energy financial market.