Modeling And Application Of Real-time Trade-off Decision-making For Emergency Evacuation Of Heterogeneous Pedestrians On Subway Platform

Pedestrian evacuation modeling has been widely used in various building safety evacuation evaluations and evacuation plan,but pedestrian evacuation modeling for subway platform scenarios still has some problems to be solved: the impact of different danger source occurrence points and impact ranges of subway stations on evacuation results,The influence of subway staff's guidance on evacuation on evacuation efficiency,etc.The above problems will cause the portrayal of the pedestrian evacuation process not to be close to the real world,making it unreasonable in terms of safety evaluation and evacuation plan.In view of the above problems,in the emergency evacuation scenario,this paper takes the location and influence of danger source and the guidance of station evacuation as the influencing factors of the evacuation environment,constructs a realtime decision-making model for heterogeneous pedestrians,builds a simulation test system,and evaluates the station for subway safety evacuation The formulation of evacuation plans provides theoretical support and practical application suggestions.Mainly complete the following work:(1)Real-time trade-off decision-making model construction of heterogeneous pedestriansBased on the complexity of subway platforms,four kinds of multi-source environmental influencing factors,such as the location,radius of the hazard source,the station evacuation intervention time,and the intensity of the intervention,are selected.Under the influence of the evacuation environment,three heterogeneous pedestrian decision-making attributes of conservativeness,tolerance,and acceptable threshold are selected to complete the expression of real-time trade-off decision types and decision objects by heterogeneous pedestrians.By analyzing the decision-making modeling principle of pedestrian-environment interaction,the Agent model and grid environment based on potential energy field are selected to express pedestrians and evacuation scenes.Based on this,we study the heterogeneous pedestrians' real-time trade-offs in the decision-making process of perception,trade-offs,and mobile typical behaviors,and establish an interactive decision-making mechanism between pedestrians and the environment to build the internal connection of the three decision-making behaviors.Based on the interactive decision-making mechanism between pedestrians and the environment,a perception behavior model,a trade-off behavior model and a movement behavior model are constructed from three typical behaviors of perception,trade-off and movement.In the construction of the trade-off behavior model,the probabilistic heterogeneous pedestrian decision-making model and the normal-type heterogeneous pedestrian decision-making model are built by using probabilistic and normal methods to assign values to heterogeneous pedestrian features.Finally,use the actual evacuation experiment data to calibrate the acceptable threshold in the pedestrian decision attributes,and combine the homogeneous pedestrian evacuation model to design a model comparison test,compare the evacuation results of the three pedestrian decision models,and prove the normal assignment.The way to describe the scientificity and effectiveness of quality pedestrian decision-making.(2)Theoretical experimental research on the modelBy designing a typical situation test,quantitatively analyzing the relationship between the four environmental impact factors of hazard sources and station evacuation guidance on pedestrian evacuation effects,the distribution rules of the location of the worst evacuation hazard and the location of the most susceptible hazard are obtained.The influence of the special value of the radius of the dead area and the extreme value of the evacuation intervention time on the evacuation process and evacuation results were found.It is concluded that the combined application of evacuation guidance intervention time and intervention intensity can increase the proportion of pedestrians choosing safe evacuation.(3)Model application test analysisAiming at the typical commuter station Chongwenmen station and leisure station East Gate of Peking University Station,the pedestrian real-time trade-off decisionmaking model is analyzed and verified in the evacuation simulation application of the specific station,and the specific key hazard source location judgment method is proposed for the physical environment of the specific station.The design includes The effects of pedestrian evacuation models are compared in the evaluation of safety evacuation,and the key factors for the screening of station evacuation plans under the conditions of heavy passenger flow are formulated.The analysis of the results of the example verifies the importance and effectiveness of real-time trade-off decision taking into account heterogeneous pedestrians during the evacuation simulation process,and provides support for the formulation of targeted evacuation indicators or evacuation guidance programs.