Impact Analysis On High-speed Railway Operation Emergency And Research On The Method For Real-time Timetable Rescheduling

With the rapid development of high-speed railway technology,high-speed railway operation is faced with multiple uncertainties such as complex system composition,high-intensity operation conditions,nonlinear accelerated degradation of equipment service performance,large-scale operation environment changes and human factors.At the same time,the probability of emergency in the operation process is significantly increased.Therefore,it is both important and urgent to strengthen the study of emergencies during high-speed train operation and understand the characteristics of emergencies and their impact on train operation.In addition,the adjustment of train diagram is the best method to reduce or even eliminate the interference of emergencies in the running state of the train.Due to equipment failure,environmental impact and human interference,line capacity declines,and trains often occur delay.Using optimization method to adjust the operation diagram in time can not only reduce the secondary propagation of the train delay but also avoid human errors.So,to strengthen the analysis of the impact of high-speed railway emergencies and the real-time diagram adjustment and optimization under the interference of emergencies has a positive effect on ensuring the safety of trains and improving the ability to respond to risks.Based on high-speed railway,this paper will integrate the research results of domestic and foreign high-speed railway emergency analysis and diagram optimization adjustment,and analyze the characteristics of various types of emergency in train operation combining the characteristics of domestic high-speed railway,then establish an adjustment and optimization model.Finally,this paper will design a hybrid intelligent algorithm and prove the effectiveness of the model and algorithm by real cases.The specific research contents are as follows:(1)Analyze and summarize the development of high-speed railway and domestic and foreign research results,according to the current research progress and existing problems,clear the research ideas,content and methods of the paper.At the same time,collect and arrange data on train operation failures and interference.(2)For the high-speed railway system,analyze the impact of emergency events on the train diagram and the incentives for common emergencies,then according to different standards,classify the emergencies.Based on the real data of railway incidents,classify emergency incidents into 8 categories using the statistical analysis method,such as vehicle fault,on-board equipment fault,railway line fault,power supply fault,telecommunication and signaling equipment fault,anthropogenic effect,natural environment interference and dispatching and supervision equipment fault.Then perform mathematical statistical analysis for each type of emergency to obtain the occurrence frequency,duration and spatial and temporal distribution characteristics.On this basis,a random forest model is introduced to establish an emergency severity prediction model.In the model,the severity of different emergencies is indicated by the number of late trains,and the ranking of the importance of various factors affecting the severity of emergencies is obtained.(3)According to the characteristics of the traffic organization of the CTCS-3 train control system of in China,study the problem of train operation adjustment under the conditions of speed-limiting emergency disturbances accompanied by initial delays.Then improve the traditional alternative graph model to realize train operation adjustment by converting the tracking interval time into the number of free sections and dividing the speed level.In the process of setting the objective function,introduce the concept of acceptable maximum delay,and define the calculation formula of the total delay of train operation which can minimize the impact of the second delay and early train of the train.(4)According to the characteristics of the train operation adjustment problem,propose an intelligent optimization algorithm to solve the model.Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional ant colony algorithm,design a bacteria foraging-ant colony algorithm in which the chemotaxis,replication and migration operations of the bacterial foraging algorithm is introduced in the ant colony iteration process.As a result,the positive feedback of the ACO and the global and efficient convergence of the BFO can be combined to obtain efficient hybrid intelligence algorithm.(5)Based on the train operation data of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,set different speed-limiting emergency scenes,analyze the impact on the total delay of the train based on whether there are initial delays and different speed-limiting interference duration,number of affected sections and speed-limiting level.At the same time,compare the performance of bacteria foraging-ant colony algorithm and ant colony algorithm.The results show that,1)Different influencing factors have different effects on the total train delay;2)Compared with the traditional ant colony algorithm,the bacterial foraging-ant colony algorithm requires a shorter solution time and obtains a better solution.This paper contains 60 figures,28 tables and 71 references.