Study On Employment Effects Of Industrial Development And Factors Influencing Employment In China From A Low-carbon Perspective

Global warming has brought serious challenges to human survival and development,and triggered a global upsurge of the transition to a low carbon economy.The low-carbon development of the industry is an important component of the low-carbon economy.The industry restructuring and the low-carbon transformation of traditional industries are important ways for China to develop a low-carbon economy.In the context of a low-carbon economy,it is of great practical significance to discuss the employment effects and influencing factors of employment for China to achieve the low-carbon transformation and stable employment.This paper first selects the index of diffusion coefficient based on industry association theory to analyze the economic and carbon emission performances of industries.Then,this paper quantifies the direct,indirect,and induced employment effects by using the partially closed input-output model with partially endogenized consumption.And finally,a weighted average structure decomposition method based on the above model is applied to analyze the influencing factors of industrial employment.An empirical study is carried out using China's 2000-2017 data.The results of the diffusion coefficient analysis show that most heavy chemical industries,production and supply of electric power and heat power,and the construction industry generate large amounts of carbon emissions while driving economic growth,and they are the key low-carbon transformation industries in China.And technology-intensive and some labor-intensive industries and service industries will become the priority industries for China's industrial low-carbon transformation.Regarding employment effects,the industries with high direct effects are mainly the agriculture and service industries.Indirect effects account for 40%-70% of the total effects of most industries,thus acting as the main determiner of an industry's employment impact.Induced effects account for around 20%,suggesting that the potential impact of induced effects is also remarkable.Decomposition results of employment influencing factors show that the increase in labor productivity hurts the employment growth of various industries.The impact of technological upgrading on employment has two sides,and the endogenous consumption coefficient and endogenous income coefficient have a phased effect on employment.The increase in the scale of final demand offsets the decline in employment caused by the increase in labor productivity.The growth of domestic demand is a key driver of employment growth in China's industrial sector.In recent years,the contribution of exports to employment growth has decreased,and consumption has gradually become the main driver of employment growth.This paper urges that China's industrial low-carbon transformation should be based on the national conditions and development stages,take into account the economic and carbon emission links between industries,and fully consider the impact on employment.Industrial low-carbon development should mainly rely on domestic demand and reduce dependence on exports.By actively expanding consumption,and guiding consumption upgrade,China can promote its industrial upgrading with consumption upgrade.reducing blind investment while expanding consumption,valuing the role of reasonable investment,and coordinating the ratio of consumption and investment.These recommendations will help China's industries go a path of low-carbon transformation coordinated with employment.