Study On The Navigation Risk And Traffic Organization For Large Newbuilding Of The Yangtze River In Jiangsu Province

With the implementation of the national strategy of “Traffic Power” and “The Yangtze River Economic Zone”,the shipping conditions of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province have been greatly improved,and the development trend of large-scale navigation ships has become more and more significant.Compared with other ordinary ships,large newbuilding has large scale and unpredictable maneuverability.In the event of a water traffic accident,it will cause a large number of casualties and huge economic losses.In order to ensure the safety of large newbuilding,this paper conducts navigation risk assessment and traffic organization research based on the characteristics of the ship,aiming at reducing the navigation risk of the ship,thereby ensuring the safety of the ship and maintaining the navigational order of the waters of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province.Firstly,according to the characteristics of large newbuilding and the navigation environment of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province,26 initial risk assessment indicators were identified.For the problem of errors or duplication of indicators,the initial indicators were screened by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution,which made it more reliable.Thereby,a more reliable and comprehensive large newbuilding navigation risk evaluation index system is constructed,including four first-level indicators and 22 second-level indicators.Secondly,based on the constructed evaluation index system,the entropy weight method is used to determine the index weight,and the mattter-element theory is used to evaluate the channel environmental risk,thus establishing the channel environmental risk assessment model.The risk of the 9 channels of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province is evaluated.The relative risk of each channel is obtained,and the evaluation results are verified by expert scoring.The channel environmental risk display platform is developed based on Google Earth,and the objective risk level of the navigation environment is divided and displayed by the multi-dimensional space.Then,based on the risk assessment results of the channel environment and the established evaluation index system,a ship navigation risk assessment model based on the combined weight analytic hierarchy process-extension method is constructed.The model considers both the influence of subjective factors and the internal links between the data;the evaluation software was designed based on the ship navigation risk assessment model,and the newbuilding “Xinfu 39” wheel was taken as an example to apply the model.The risk level of the ship in different navigation channels was obtained,and the results were analyzed.Finally,the Data Envelopment Analysis is used to identify the key waters of the ship traffic organization,and the key waters and ship navigation risk assessment results are compared,and the important nodes of the traffic organization are obtained.Taking the “Xinfu 39” wheel as a research example,the ship traffic organization is designed.The program includes a sea patrol boating program and a ship traffic organization maintenance program.The research on the navigation risk of large newbuilding and the design of traffic organization provide a theoretical basis for reducing the navigation risk of ships and the in-depth study of the organization plan of newbuilding traffic.