Analysis And Prediction Of Regional Urbanization-related Carbon Emissions Based On STIRPAT Model

At present,global warming has become a serious threat to the sustainable development of the international community,and excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are the main cause of global warming.As a major energy consumer,China always has a high demand of fossil fuels.The issue of energy conservation and CO₂emission reduction has always been attention by the international community.A large number of literatures focus on the relationship between population urbanization and carbon emissions,and few pay attention to other relevant factors such as energy urbanization.Therefore,it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in China comprehensively.Based on the previous studies of the relationship between urbanization and CO₂emissions,,this paper utilizes relevant theories and various statistical research methods to study deeply.First,the improved STIRPAT?Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology?model based on FE-DK regression model is used for analyzing the urbanization related factors affecting carbon emissions.Then we divided 30 provinces into three major regions according to the level of urbanization development?highly urbanized region,urbanizing region and under urbanized region?.Using the panel data from 1996 to 2015,this paper constructed a regression model for regional variance analysis.The results show that the level of service industry plays an increasingly important role in the industrial development of highly urbanized areas.In addition,the demographic factors of developing urbanized areas have a higher impact than the other two regions.At the same time,it's more important to improve energy efficiency in under urbanized area.Secondly,based on different factors affecting carbon emissions in different regions,a grey correlation model is established to further verify the previous theoretical analysis and empirical results,judging the correlation between the seven factors and carbon emissions based on the results.Finally,the future carbon emissions of China from2016 to 2050 are predicted by GM?1,1?and scenario analysis.We make corresponding policy recommendations for three major regions.