Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In Qingdao Based On STIRPAT Model

From the beginning of the first industrial revolution has brought historic changes the application of steam for our social development.The energy consumption of this concept was born.We with the passage of time,people economic development is more and more varied,energy use becomes more and more frequent.This caused a very serious problems existing now the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.We called the excessive increase of carbon emissions cause climate problems intensified,while climate deterioration will further inhibit the development of our economy,caused some vicious spiral columns.Agriculture as an environmental impact is restricted The industry,for the problem of climate change induction is very sensitive.As a basic human survival industry,agriculture plays a very important role.Based on this point,imminent carbon emissions in the agricultural production.Research on how to form the relationship between economy and environment interact in agricultural production,is a hot research now.The mainstream of Qingdao as one of the most important economic regions should actively respond to the agricultural production in the low carbon emission problem.This paper will be based on the perspective of Qingdao City,with the effectiveness of existing data of Qingdao city,selected the agricultural labor force population,mechanical efficiency,per capita GDP and the urbanization rate of more than one index variable in the empirical analysis.Firstly,Johansen cointegration test,the number of agricultural labor,mechanical efficiency,GDP per capita,the urbanization rate has the whole equation on the long-term average carbon co agricultural row.The agricultural labor force population and urbanization rate increase 1%,the average carbon agriculture row will increase 6.162086%,0.683638%;and the mechanical efficiency and the GDP per capita increased by 1%,the average carbon agriculture row decreased by 1.805883%,0.40247 This is how we do 7%.energy saving and emission reduction in agriculture provides a way of thinking.Then the vector error correction model,Granger causality test,it is proved that they are Granger cause the average carbon agriculture row.Then we add two kinds of short-term random disturbance,respectively from the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis the influence of various factors on the average carbon agriculture row.Overall,the average agricultural carbon Qingdao row in a slow downward trend,on the one hand due effect leads to rapid development in the economy(Kuznets curve theory);on the other hand is due to people's awareness of environmental protection,economic behavior production decreased greatly.This paper through empirical analysis method,to find a reasonable way of low carbon emission reduction in agricultural production.