| The study of landscape pattern and ecological service value is one of the hotspots of current research.With the rapid development of economy and the advancement of urbanization,the regional landscape pattern changes more and more frequently.The change of landscape pattern affects the regional ecological security,as well as the regional biodiversity and ecosystem service function.If we study the landscape pattern and ecological service value of a region,we can provide important reference for optimizing the spatial security pattern and improving the regional ecological service value.In this study,TM/Oli,tirs remote sensing images of Chongqing main urban areas in 2000,2006,2012 and 2018 are used as data sources.Firstly,the spatial combination characteristics and change rules of landscape pattern in the study area are studied from landscape type structure characteristics,landscape pattern index changes and topographic position index.Then,the value coefficient of ecological service is revised by unit area value equivalent factor The spatial and temporal evolution of the value of ecological services in the study area is studied,and the driving factors of the change of the landscape pattern in the study area are studied by buffer analysis and binary logistic regression analysis.Finally,the change of the landscape pattern and the value of ecological services in the study area in 2025 is predicted by using the Logistic_Ca_Markov model constructed by IDRISI 17.0 software.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2018,the landscape pattern of the study area changed greatly,and the landscape type area was from large to small in the order of forestry landscape>Agricultural Landscape>construction landscape>water landscape>grassland landscape,and the main landscape types were forestry landscape and agricultural landscape.From 2000 to 2018,the research on agricultural landscape and forestry landscape showed a decreasing trend,with a large reduction range of 165.24 km~2 and168.51 km~2 respectively.The construction landscape shows an upward trend,with a large increase of 329.02 km~2.Water landscape and grassland landscape area increased slightly,and the overall change range was small.Agricultural landscape and forestry landscape are mainly transformed into construction landscape,and the largest change of landscape dynamic degree is construction landscape,and the landscape pattern of the study area is significantly affected by terrain position.From 2000 to 2018,the landscape fragmentation in the study area showed an overall upward trend,with the increase of forestry landscape and agricultural landscape being the most prominent.At the same time,the landscape types in the study area tend to be rich and diversified,the human disturbance to the landscape increases,the patch shape tends to be simplified,the patch types of each landscape have great differences in spatial distribution,and the degree of different patch aggregation decreases and presents a trend of dispersion.(2)From 2000 to 2018,the value of ecological services in the study area showed a trend of continuous decline.The value of ecological services decreased by 2.968 billion yuan in 18 years,with the largest decline in 2012-2018.There are significant differences in the value of ecological services in each area of the study area.The order of the value of ecological services from high to low is Banan District>Yubei District>Beibei District>Jiulongpo District>Shapingba District>Nan'an District>Jiangbei District>Dadukou District>Yuzhong District.The spatial distribution of the value level of ecological services in the study area is positively correlated with the distribution of landscape types.(3)According to the prediction results,the agricultural landscape,forestry landscape,grassland landscape and water landscape in the study area will be reduced to different degrees in 2025,among which the maximum reduction area of forestry landscape is 228.45km~2,the maximum reduction area of agricultural landscape is203.24km~2,the maximum reduction area of water landscape is 2.44km~2,and the minimum reduction area of grassland landscape is 0.35km~2.In 2025,only the construction landscape will increase and change,and the increased area will be large,with an increase of 434.48 km~2 from 2018 to 2025.In 2025,the overall landscape pattern of the study area will become more fragmented,but the fragmentation degree of the construction landscape will be reduced,and the landscape types will tend to be rich and diversified,but the landscape shape will be simplified,and it will be interfered by people.At the same time,the landscape in the study area will become more scattered,and the aggregation degree will be reduced.In 2025,the overall value of ecological services in the study area will decrease,from 26 billion 73 million yuan in 2018 to 22billion 21 million yuan in 2025,and the value of ecological services will decrease by 4billion 52 million yuan,with a large decrease.Among them,the adjustment service decreased from 12 billion 388 million yuan in 2018 to 9 billion 642 million yuan in2025,a decrease of 2 billion 746 million yuan,accounting for 67.77%of the total decrease in the total value of ecological services. |
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