| In northern Liaodong bay area is one of the typical muddy coast of northern China,not only precious wetland resources,but also has important ecological functions.Therefore discusses coastal wetland land use intensity and the ecosystem services value,simulated the future pattern of land use is a relationship between time and space to promote the rational allocation of coastal wetland resources and maintain the important basis for the sustainable development of ecosystem.Based on the interpretation data of Landsat TM images of the northern area of Liaodong bay in 1985,1993,2002 and 2014,Markov model were firstly used to analyze the land use change in the study area.Secondly,the value of ecosystem services in the research area was calculated and revised to discuss the spatio-temporal evolution of the value of ecosystem services in the research area.In addition,the spatial-temporal coupling relationship between land use intensity and ecosystem service value is discussed by using geostatistical method and geoweighted regression model.Finally,land use scenario simulation was carried out.Ca-markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern of the study area in 2026 under the two modes of "natural development scenario" and "ecological protection scenario",and the ecosystem service value was predicted under different scenarios.The results show that:(1)In the past 30 years,the area of natural coastal wetland has decreased sharply.The area of artificial coastal wetland and non-wetland has increased dramatically,indicating that the city is in a period of rapid development.The spatial conversion of land is mainly from natural coastal wetland to artificial coastal wetland and non-wetland.The change of grassland and dry land is the most stable.The degree of land use in the research area is gradually enhanced,but the increasing rate is gradually slowed down.(2)The total value of ecosystem services in the northern area of Liaodong bay is on the decline and the ecological environment degradation is obvious.The spatial differentiation of ESV per unit area in the north of Liaodong bay showed a trend of evolution from high in the south to low in the north to low in the west and low in the east.The land use types with high ESV,such as tidal flats and waters,are losing and degrading in the central and southern regions,and the low-value areas are expanding southward.The median area is always distributed in the transition zone between the lower value area and the higher value area,which is occupied by the lower value area and the lower value area.(3)The increase of land use intensity will bring significant economic benefits in the short term,which is manifested in the rapid increase of the value of supply and service.Specifically,LUI increased in the early stage of the study,but ESV in the study area did not decrease under the influence of the huge economic benefits brought by aquaculture.However,in the long run,the negative effects of the increase in land use intensity gradually emerged,and LUI and ESV showed a strong negative correlation.With the increase of LUI,there is a tradeoff between the four service types,in which the increase of the value of the supplied service leads to the decrease of the value of other service types,and this relationship is particularly strong in the southern part of the research area.(4)Under the natural development scenario,the grassland area decreases the most,the construction land area increases the most,ESV decreases as a whole,and the change trend is consistent with the change trend of land use.Ecological protection situation is the same as "" natural development situation,for the grassland area is the biggest decline in land use types,on the contrary,construction land area increased,most ESV still is on the decline,but to a lesser degree of loss,waters and tidal flats loss area is greatly reduced,especially the corresponding hydrological regulation and function of biodiversity," " natural development situation of creating value,land use into balance. |
PDF Full Text Request