Credit Risk Analysis Of Main Body Of Bond Issuance In Coal Industry

Coal enterprises are an important issuing group in the bond market.The absolute yield of coal enterprise bonds is high and there is still room for exploration.As the target of coal capacity reduction is achieved,the supply side will gradually increase production capacity under construction in the short term,while the demand side will face a downward growth rate in the long term,and the coal price will face some downward pressure.However,considering the increasing concentration of supply side in the current coal industry,the policy requires that a large number of purchases be made by long agreement price,or the coal price can be restrained to fall rapidly,and the risk of deterioration of industry prosperity can be controlled.From the situation of coal enterprises issuing bonds,as of February 2020,the coal industry has a total stock debt of 691,with a balance of 977.8 billion yuan.From the perspective of issuer structure,the outstanding debt of local state-owned enterprises accounts for 88%,and the outstanding debt of local state-owned enterprises is 861.3 billion yuan,the outstanding debt of central state-owned enterprises is 105.8 billion yuan,and the outstanding debt of private enterprises is 10.7 billion yuan.From the perspective of the distribution of existing debt rating,the outstanding debt of the main issuers of AAA rating reached 892.841 billion,accounting for more than 90% of the total.The outstanding debt of AA+ was 50.984 billion yuan.The outstanding debt of AA,AA-,A and below was 24 billion yuan,5 billion yuan and 4.4 billion yuan respectively.Relatively speaking,the average coupon rate of bond issuance in the primary market is relatively high,which may be due to the concern about the heavy debt burden of the coal industry as a whole.The absolute yield space of some AAA-rated bonds is still obvious.Based on the author's long-term experience in bond investment and financing in GT trust company,this paper combines the existing credit rating method with the specific situation of the coal industry according to the characteristics of credit risk,proposes the credit analysis method applicable to the coal industry,and establishes the credit risk analysis framework of the coal industry.On this basis,the paper designs the credit analysis model of coal enterprises--the score card model,and takes the listed company yanzhou coal company as an example to analyze its credit risk.Based on the credit risk analysis framework of coal industry,this paper mainly analyzes the coal industry from two aspects: operation level and financial level.From the perspective of management level,mainly consider the enterprise scale and industry status,condition of resources endowment and the three indicators: the producing pattern of coal enterprise and the product homogeneity is strong,firm size and industry position can better reflect the core competitiveness of coal enterprises,involving the coal enterprise shareholder background,the total assets of coal enterprises,the production capacity in the secondary indicator;The innate resource endowment of coal enterprises has an important influence on the mining,processing and sales of coal.Regional conditions,such as the economy and consumption of coal in coal-producing areas and the transportation cost of foreign sales,have an important impact on the coal price,involving secondary indicators such as the transportation cost of tons of coal,the economic development trend of the local or target consumption market and the coal supply and demand.From the aspect of financial analysis,mainly considering the profitability and solvency of two level indexes: the profit as the basis of cash flow,has a vital role on debt servicing,has a great influence on enterprise's credit level,involving nearly three years the average revenue,average net profit,profit related secondary financial indicators such as EBITDA;Solvency analysis is aimed at evaluating its debt repayment credit record and debt repayment ability,involving secondary indicators such as asset-liability ratio,enterprise credit record and financing environment.In credit risk analysis framework on the basis of the coal industry,this paper USES the analysis of the coal enterprise credit risk score card model,credit risk analysis of Yanzhou coal company,a listed companies : respectively calculate the company's business level score(76.5),financial level points(78 points),and then calculate the company's overall credit score of 77.25 points.Finally,on the basis of collecting data of some coal enterprises by hand,the company law is used to compare the same industry,which indicates that the overall credit level of Yanzhou coal company ranks the 6th in the whole industry,and the conclusion that the overall credit qualification is better is obtained.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper proposes that coal enterprises should do a good job of risk prevention and control at the operation level,financial status and other aspects,improve the credit level,reduce the default risk of bonds and other targeted Suggestions.