Design And Application Of Domino Effect Environmental Risk Assessment System

The rapid development of economy and society has promoted the large-scale upgrading of modern industry,but to a certain extent,it has also exacerbated the environmental security crisis.Domino effect is one of the major threats that can not be ignored.In the early stage,there were few studies on domino effect,the general risk assessment only focused on single accident,and the impact of chain accident was seriously underestimated.Since the 1970 s,the occurrence of key domino accidents in Britain,India and other places has sounded the alarm for people,and the research of domino effect has gradually started in the field of process safety of chemical industry.Compared with other countries,China's chemical industry is growing rapidly and concentrated in densely populated areas.The consequences of safety and environmental accidents are more serious.However,the occurrence of historical domino accidents has not attracted a wide range of attention.The research on domino effect in China started late as a whole.Many employees of chemical enterprises lack the understanding of domino accidents,and the phenomenon of ignoring domino effect exists in risk management of chemical enterprises.In order to better carry out the prevention and control of domino effect,this study designed and developed a domino effect environmental risk assessment system(domirisk),which can provide risk assessment decision support for chemical enterprises in China.This study summarizes the common defect of the existing software by retrospectively analyzing the functional characteristics of the existing software.Combing the problem of insufficient awareness of the domino effect of chemical workers,the expected goals of the DOMIRISK system were determinedfinally.The system is easy to operate and the results are accurate;it can introduce actual production factors,improve the simulated accident level,consider the impact of the accident environment,simplify the risk evaluation operation,and supplement the data ofhistorical domino accidentbased on the functions of general software.Therefore,this research carried out literature research in many aspects such as the identification and construction of domino accident chain,calculation of accident probability,analysis of accident consequences,development of decision support system,and historical accidents of domino.Finally,the extraction and integration of theoretical results of the domino effect risk indicator system,accident chain identification and construction,Monte Carlo simulation technology,accidental human health injury,and environmental impact prediction were completed.At the same time,historical domino accident information was crawled and organized from domestic and foreign security databases.Based on this,combining the development experience of excellent decision support systems at home and abroad,this study has completed the overall design of the DOMRISK system,the implementation ideas and algorithm design of specific functional modules.Using C #,sqlsever2012 and other technology,the system was completed.The DOMRISK system can finally: 1)Realize the pre-assessment of the risk of the enterprise.It can identify the cause of the accident based on the risk detection of environmental management,staff,process equipment,emergency rescue system,safety management,raw and auxiliary materials and get domino risk value and risk rating of the plant,so as to provide a reference for the enterprise to conduct a risk assessment of the domino effect.2)Realize the identification and construction of the potential accident chain in the plant area,and can obtain the accident probability of the device in a multi-level accident scenario based on Monte Carlo simulation.3)Predict and analyse of the consequence of safety and environment accidents based on the accidental human injury model,diffusion modelsof the atmospheric and water environment.4)Realize thequery of historical domino accident.Through the application of the DOMRISK system,it can be known that the overall domino effect risk value of the plant is 6.95,which is at a high-risk level.Vulnerabilities in process equipment and safety management are the main reasons for potential domino accidents.There are 14 major dangerous sources in the plant area that may cause initial accidents.The accident propagation path is highly uncertain.In the multi-level accident scenario corresponding to the device R74410,there are 24 potential domino accident chains.Once domino accident occurs,the toxic and hazardous substances leaked from the accident will pollute the surrounding air environment within 9.6km,and the air pollution within 570.5m will be a lethal threat to the crowd.The accident will cause at least 23 deaths,45 injuries and 320 minor injuries in the surrounding area.The probability of accidents in the plant area is more than 60%.Compared with other devices,the probability of domino accidents in major hazard sources is generally higher.The research results show that the DOMRISK system can combine the safety of the chemical industry with environmental protection,which is conducive to enhancing the awareness of corporate users about the risk of the domino effect and helping corporate users to understand the potential spreading process and consequence of the domino accident.Therefore,it can provide more practical decision support for domino risk evaluation and management in actual industrial production.It can control the occurrence and escalation of domino accident from the source,avoid major accident consequenceand protect the safety of environment and human health.