Research On Medium And Long Term Power Load Forecasting In Boluo County,Guangdong Province

In recent years,with the continuous deepening of power grid reform,the breakthrough of electric power reform is at the distribution network end,and the national electric power reform introduces competition in the distribution network side,distributed photovoltaic,cold and heat electricity triple supply,energy storage technology,etc.The distribution network development plan puts forward higher requirements.Load forecasting is not only the basis and key to the development of power grid planning,but also the prerequisite for the scientific operation of the power market.It is related to a series of problems such as rational determination of power development in the planning area,power grid construction,power generation and distribution equipment capacity,and selection.Accurate forecasting results are conducive to correctly planning power supply plans and obtaining the best investment benefits,effectively improving regional power development speed,expanding power construction scale,improving power industry layout,balancing energy resources,etc.,for the development of the national economy and the people's Daily life has a direct impact.This paper focuses on the analysis and research of medium and long-term load forecasting.Power load forecasting includes electricity demand forecasting and power demand forecasting.The method of mathematical forecasting based on mathematical modeling is based on gray forecasting model and time series model,and the coefficient of variation is utilized.The method obtains the weight coefficient and constructs the combined forecasting model to predict the whole society's electricity consumption in the Boluo area.In terms of load forecasting,combined with the characteristics of the Boluo County power grid,it adopts the point load growth + user report method and the spatial density method.Perform maximum active load forecasting.This paper firstly analyzes the research status of medium and long-term load forecasting,studies and summarizes the existing power load forecasting technology,and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages and applicable scope of several classical and emerging power load forecasting methods.Based on the detailed description of the principle,characteristics and classification of the forecasting,the specific content and step flow of the forecasting are improved,and some analysis methods are proposed for the relevant factors affecting the load forecasting.Secondly,considering the diversity of the prediction model,based on the gray prediction model and the modeling mechanism of the ARIMA model,the specific algorithm flow of the two models is compiled,and the specific programming implementation is obtained through MATLAB software.Thirdly,because the medium and long-term electric load forecasting is affected by many uncertain factors,in order to improve the prediction accuracy,expand the scope of application,and improve the GM(1,1)model,the exponential smoothing method is introduced to preprocess the original data,aiming to reduce the outliers in the original series.Influence,then the generated sequence is GM(1,1)modeled,and the residual value is corrected according to the prediction error size.Finally,using the equal-division technology,new prediction values are added to replace the original data in the sample sequence.Through the comparative analysis of results,the scientificity and effectiveness of the improved model are verified.Then,the preferred combination technique is introduced,and the improved GM(1,1)model is linearly combined with the ARIMA model by the coefficient of variation method.The combined model is based on the maximum utilization of information,and combines the advantages of both,which is beneficial to improve the accuracy and prediction effect of the overall model.The feasibility of the combined model is verified by a specific example.Finally,considering the development prospects of Boluo,in recent years,the proportion of new users and large users of electricity consumption in the whole society continues to rise,and the municipal vision is also implemented step by step,combined with the power load of Boluo County.The development of the Boro County's maximum active load using point load growth + user report method and space density method to predict the total load and spatial distribution.It has certain practical engineering significance for the decision-making work of Boluo County-level power company.