Effect Of Station Setting And Passenger Flow On Bus Travel Time Reliability

Bus travel time reliability is not only one of important performance measures for assessing the operating status of urban public transit,but also the key factor to consider when passengers choose the travel mode.However,in most cities of China,because of traffic congestion during peak periods and public transit complex operating environment,which leads to bus travel time of uncertainty,poor punctuality and other problems.Therefore,it is necessary to discuss the reliability of bus travel time,which can provide informations for bus operation management and passengers travel.In this paper,it takes regular public transit as the research object,it proposes a dynamic forecasting model of bus travel time,and proposes a bus travel time reliability model.The research contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,at the perspective of regular transit operation,giving a definition of bus travel time reliability through system engineering and the related research results at home and abroad,and analyzing its influencing factors.Secondly,through selecting bus station type,bus station location,bus station berths,bus station spacing,bus station passenger flow and time period as input conditions,training and testing model by using bus survey data to calibrate the network best weights and thresholds of GA-BP,it establishes bus adjacent stations travel time prediction based on genetic algorithm optimization of back propagation neural network model.And through testing the prediction model,results indicate that model can effectively improve the prediction speed and forecast accuracy compared with back propagation neural network model,which indicates that model has better reliability and feasibility.Finally,through using probability measure method,it establishes bus dwell time reliability model based on a thorough analysis of boarding time,alighting time and lost time from the angle of station passenger flow.Through the running time of unit distance interval probability distribution fitting,it establishes the interval travel time reliability model based on the lognormal distribution.The threshold value of running time of unit distance interval is determined by the acceptable level of public transport services.Taking bus dwell time reliability and interval travel time reliability model as the evaluation index,it establishes the travel time reliability comprehensive evaluation model based on the index weight which is determined by variation coefficient method.