Study On The Passenger Flow Forecast Method Of Urban Rail Transfer Station

With the city population increasing and the city function increasingly powerful, citytraffic-the carrier of daily social and economic activities-faced with severe test. Along withthe level of China’s economic increase and the city traffic congestion, the construction ofurban rail transit in the large and medium-sized cities of our country is also rising prosperous,at the same time a series of worth exploring and pondering problem arises in the constructionprocess, the passenger flow forecast analysis of urban rail transit is one of them. Different cityin actual passenger and passenger flow forecast on the existence of different levels of error byanalyzing the mature city’s rail transit operation data, how to improve passenger flow forecastaccuracy is worthy of study, at the same time the transfer station is the city rail traffic networkspecial node, its passenger flow study is important part of urban rail transit passenger flowanalysis research.Based on the general research object-urban rail transit station site facilities are describedin detail, in view of the different classification method and its characteristics at the urban railtransit station, and detailed descript the function characteristics and the characteristics of thepassenger flow of the different rail transit station, and summarizes and analyzes theadvantages and disadvantages of transfer mode in uraban rail transit transfer station, andraised the existing problems of urban rail transit station. Analysis the basic constitute unit ofpassenger flow in urban rail transit transfer station, and analysis the common methods andprediction process of the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast. Based on the station’spassenger flow attraction region model, introduced the concept of the generalized travel cost,travel cost contrast, determine the path selection of distribution, and provides a basis forsingle line station passenger flow attraction region model of the urban rail transit. Drawlessons from the four phase traffic prediction model for the distribution of results, using Logitnon agglomeration model predictive mode chain selection probability, and then use the stationattracting passenger flow model to forecast the passenger flow into and out the transferstation.This article attempts to erect urban rail transit station as the research object, establish theurban rail transit station general passenger flow attraction region model, use the urban railtransit passenger flow results by the traditional four stage method, analyze the into, out andtransfer passenger flow of transfer station. During this process, summarizes and analyzes thedifferent types of urban rail transit station, the passenger flow characteristics of differenttransfer form and the forecasting method of passenger flow. Focusing on the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast methods advantages and disadvantages, and tries to analyzedeficiencies in the search for improved methods, in order to achieve the transfer stationpassenger flow forecasting method of optimization, improve the accuracy of passenger flowforecast.