Study On Risk Sharing Of Highway Engineering PPP Project Based On Bargaining Model

With the rapid development of China's transportation,especially the highway traffic,the government's investment in the construction of transportation infrastructure is increasing year by year.The PPP model,as a partnership based on partnerships and benefit-sharing and social sharing,has become a new model for effectively alleviating fiscal pressures and improving the overall quality of public goods and services.However,due to the diversity of the PPP model and the complexity of the risk factors in the highway project itself,coupled with the large number of parties participating in the highway project PPP project,and the ultimate goals pursued by the participants are different,how to realize the reasonable distribution of risk is the focus of the current participants.Therefore,during the implementation of highway project PPP project,a scientific and reasonable risk sharing program is an important guarantee for the smooth implementation of the project,and it is also an important prerequisite for maximizing social benefits.In this paper,government departments,pure investors,and professional company are the main risk sharing entities.The risk factors of highway engineering projects are used as risk sharing objects,study on the risk sharing of PPP project in highway engineering.First,on the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign literature,this paper starts with the analysis of the relevant theories of PPP model,project risk,bargaining,and risk sharing,and analyzes the many participants of the highway engineering PPP project based on the stakeholder theory.Government departments,pure investors,and professional company acted as risk-sharing subjects,risks under the tripartite game of highway engineering PPP projects were used as risk-sharing objects,and the tripartite risk-balancing bargaining process for highway engineering PPP projects was clarified.Secondly,based on the perspective of tripartite game,based on the work breakdown structure of highway engineering PPP project,from the perspectives of exogenous risk and endogenous risk,a systematic study of risk identification of highway engineering PPP project risks was conducted,the risk space based on the influence graph theory is constructed for the identified 64 risk factors.Then,from the perspective of the game,based on the risk appetite,the risk appraisal is judged,and the models of bargaining risk under the incomplete information and the bargaining risk under the full information is again shared of the highway engineering PPP project is constructed,and refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium solutions and corresponding subgame-refined Nash equilibrium solutions to achieve the initial risk sharing between government departments,pure investors and professional company,and the re-risk sharing between pure investors and professional company.The proportion of risk sharing between government departments,pure investors and professional company is obtained,and developed a computer system for risk sharing of highway project PPP projects based on the bargaining model.Finally,it took the provincial capital No.413 to Pengxi County,relying on the first-class highway of the Yuxi interchange overpass of the West Anhui Expressway,the model was empirically analyzed and the system was actually operated to verify the practicability and rationality of the model and computer system.